Dariusz Swider vs Witold Buczynski 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite Series

Played Oct 4Finished

Dariusz Swider

Home

1.53

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

115511119115––

Witold Buczynski

Away

2.38

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:51 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%

Graded at full time

Dariusz Swider to win

60.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingDariusz Swider above · Witold Buczynski below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 5-11

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 11-5

Point 68 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Dariusz Swider at 60.8%

68 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 02:51

60.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533

short by 4.4pp

65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Swider

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Swider 1472 vs Buczynski 1263

Swider

Correct

both rated, 209 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Swider 40% vs Buczynski 20%

Swider

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Swider 60% vs Buczynski 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Swider +1 · Buczynski -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Swider) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Buczynski form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSwider 1.533 / Buczynski 2.375

Signal prob.61% / 39%

Edge (Swider)-4.4pp (anti-value)

TT Elite Series · #13238128

Swider1.53

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

Buczynski2.38

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 30)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog38% won 192 of 500

Down 0–1, comes back22% 64 of 296

Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 161

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricSwiderBuczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 457 / 115260%39.7%6 / 10 vs 457 / 1152Avg sets wonper match2.51.8per matchAvg pointsper match43.236.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Swider

Swider 1.53/Buczynski 2.38

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

60.8%

Swider · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Swider won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

D. Swider10