TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dariusz Swider vs Jakub Jesiek 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Dariusz Swider
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111171210911118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDariusz Swider to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDariusz Swider above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Dariusz Swider at 57.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Dariusz Swider 1–0 Jakub Jesiek Jakub Jesiek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Swider beat Jesiek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0957.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Swider
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Swider 1388 vs Jesiek 1407
Jesiek
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Swider 40% vs Jesiek 60%
Jesiek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Swider 40% vs Jesiek 60%
Jesiek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Swider -1 · Jesiek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Swider) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jesiek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSwider 1.615 / Jesiek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Swider)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13242033
Swider1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Jesiek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 77 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSwider1wins
AwayJesiek0wins
Swider leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSwiderJesiekS − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.030.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSwiderJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime9 / 17 vs 294 / 56052.9%52.5%9 / 17 vs 294 / 560Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SwiderSwider 1.61/Jesiek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Swider · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Swider won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 4 · 08:35D. Swider3611113113J. Jesiek30471181
D. Swider10
WOct 4 · 13:05P. Polok1.5011811792D. Swider2.50711611113LOct 4 · 10:35D. Swider1.44111013872W. Buczynski2.631121111113WOct 4 · 09:50R. Idaczyk2.105640D. Swider1.671111113WOct 4 · 08:35D. Swider1.7311113113J. Jesiek2.00471181LOct 4 · 06:55D. Swider1.91117140P. Polok1.801311163LOct 4 · 05:40D. Swider1.5778100R. Idaczyk2.251111123LOct 4 · 04:10D. Swider1.831171041W. Wojtaszczyk1.839111273WOct 4 · 03:00D. Swider1.5311511113W. Buczynski2.38511951WOct 3 · 17:05D. Swider1.8591111113R. Idaczyk1.85116571LOct 3 · 15:30D. Swider—11515101P. Jedrzejak—41117123
J. Jesiek10
WOct 4 · 11:00R. Idaczyk1.8313117582J. Jesiek1.831141111113LOct 4 · 09:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.831112113J. Jesiek1.8371040LOct 4 · 08:35D. Swider1.7311113113J. Jesiek2.00471181WOct 4 · 07:20J. Jesiek1.831111113W. Buczynski1.835650WOct 4 · 06:05P. Polok1.44510120J. Jesiek2.631112143WOct 4 · 04:55R. Idaczyk2.007630J. Jesiek1.731111113LOct 4 · 03:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.6791111123J. Jesiek2.101198101LOct 3 · 14:20P. Polok1.5751111113J. Jesiek2.25115581WOct 3 · 13:30O. Sokolowski2.63891121J. Jesiek1.4411118113WOct 3 · 11:25L. Bernacki1.736190J. Jesiek2.001111113
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