TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Erik Precek vs Ondrej Bolcarovic 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 52 - H2 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111161181315116
Ondrej Bolcarovic
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:06 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeErik Precek to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Precek above · Ondrej Bolcarovic below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 95 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Erik Precek at 58.1%
95 points played in total.
H2H Erik Precek 5–3 Ondrej Bolcarovic Ondrej Bolcarovic has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:0658.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Precek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Precek
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Precek 1557 vs Bolcarovic 1541
Precek
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Precek 60% vs Bolcarovic 20%
Precek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Precek 60% vs Bolcarovic 30%
Precek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Precek -2 · Bolcarovic +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Precek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolcarovic form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrecek 1.615 / Bolcarovic 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Precek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13272035
Precek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Oct 02) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 39 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Bolcarovic2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 47 days ago (Aug 24) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePrecek5wins
AwayBolcarovic3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderPrecek leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrecek60%3 of 5
AwayBolcarovic33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Precek5Bolcarovic3n = 8Precek took 5 of 8
S2Precek4Bolcarovic4n = 8split evenly
S3Precek4Bolcarovic4n = 8split evenly
S4Precek2Bolcarovic3n = 5Bolcarovic took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricPrecekBolcarovicP − BBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.237.1+1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrecekBolcarovicBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 509 vs 28 / 5747%49.1%239 / 509 vs 28 / 57Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PrecekPrecek 1.61/Bolcarovic 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Precek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Precek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 19 · 09:10E. Precek361187101O. Bolcarovic3731111123
LJun 19 · 08:10E. Precek228680O. Bolcarovic331111113
WMay 14 · 17:14E. Precek4471115113O. Bolcarovic331151341
WMay 14 · 15:40E. Precek391211163O. Bolcarovic33109140
WFeb 2 · 21:45E. Precek361213113O. Bolcarovic29101180
WFeb 2 · 20:15E. Precek551391012113O. Bolcarovic491111121052
LJan 20 · 18:40E. Precek291110171O. Bolcarovic4171211113
WJan 2 · 12:40E. Precek45611116113O. Bolcarovic4211761172
E. Precek10
WOct 10 · 11:45L. Dzida1.61117101172E. Precek2.20811127113LOct 10 · 11:15T. Molin2.2511128113E. Precek1.576101151LOct 2 · 13:18T. Krenek1.831111113E. Precek1.836690LOct 2 · 12:15E. Precek1.911111841L. Dzida1.8013611113WOct 2 · 10:45M. Macurak1.57115861E. Precek2.2591111113WOct 2 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73891111102E. Precek2.00111187123WOct 2 · 09:20M. Raska2.3891090E. Precek1.531112113WOct 2 · 07:45R. Sedlacek1.53611118102E. Precek2.38113811123WOct 2 · 07:15M. Raska2.20411651E. Precek1.6111411113LOct 2 · 06:15E. Precek1.6111101151L. Lasota2.2041213113
O. Bolcarovic10
WOct 10 · 10:45L. Dzida1.80101360O. Bolcarovic1.911215113WAug 24 · 08:33D. Vitasek1.8068100O. Bolcarovic1.911111123LAug 24 · 07:40T. Krenek1.7361111113O. Bolcarovic2.00112591LAug 24 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.001111117113O. Bolcarovic1.7341331132LAug 24 · 06:10O. Bolcarovic1.7381111982D. Vitasek2.00116411113LJun 30 · 08:45R. Benes—1141111113O. Bolcarovic—71181392LJun 30 · 08:10O. Bolcarovic2.048860R. Benes1.641111113LJun 30 · 06:40J. Skvrna1.65115411113O. Bolcarovic2.1071111552LJun 30 · 06:10T. Krenek2.1011119113O. Bolcarovic1.65791171WJun 19 · 09:10O. Bolcarovic—31111123E. Precek—1187101
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