TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Dzida vs Ondrej Bolcarovic 0-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 52 - H2 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121315611––––
Ondrej Bolcarovic
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Ondrej Bolcarovic below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 67 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 0–1 Ondrej Bolcarovic Lukas Dzida has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dzida
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1538 vs Bolcarovic 1545
Bolcarovic
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 40% vs Bolcarovic 20%
Dzida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 40% vs Bolcarovic 20%
Dzida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida -2 · Bolcarovic -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolcarovic form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.80 / Bolcarovic 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dzida)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13271799
Dzida1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 57 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Bolcarovic1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDzida0wins
AwayBolcarovic1wins
Bolcarovic leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricDzidaBolcarovicD − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match29.038.0−9.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaBolcarovicBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 255 vs 29 / 5953.3%49.2%136 / 255 vs 29 / 59Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.80/Bolcarovic 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bolcarovic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 10 · 10:45L. Dzida29101360O. Bolcarovic381215113
L. Dzida10
LOct 10 · 11:45L. Dzida1.61117101172E. Precek2.20811127113LOct 10 · 09:45L. Dzida1.507620T. Molin2.501111113LOct 7 · 13:19R. Benes1.501111113L. Dzida2.507750WOct 7 · 12:15L. Kantor2.00841641L. Dzida1.73111114113WOct 7 · 11:15L. Dzida1.9115911113T. Kindl1.801311491LOct 7 · 09:45R. Benes1.6113174123L. Dzida2.20111511101LOct 5 · 16:39L. Dzida1.801191091K. Kleprlik1.9191112113WOct 5 · 16:10K. Kleprlik1.8081191152L. Dzida1.91119118113LOct 5 · 15:10L. Dzida2.109970D. Skulina1.671111113LOct 5 · 13:40F. Chaloupka1.67111011113L. Dzida2.10412751
O. Bolcarovic10
LOct 10 · 10:15E. Precek1.613111113113O. Bolcarovic2.2011681562WAug 24 · 08:33D. Vitasek1.8068100O. Bolcarovic1.911111123LAug 24 · 07:40T. Krenek1.7361111113O. Bolcarovic2.00112591LAug 24 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.001111117113O. Bolcarovic1.7341331132LAug 24 · 06:10O. Bolcarovic1.7381111982D. Vitasek2.00116411113LJun 30 · 08:45R. Benes—1141111113O. Bolcarovic—71181392LJun 30 · 08:10O. Bolcarovic2.048860R. Benes1.641111113LJun 30 · 06:40J. Skvrna1.65115411113O. Bolcarovic2.1071111552LJun 30 · 06:10T. Krenek2.1011119113O. Bolcarovic1.65791171WJun 19 · 09:10O. Bolcarovic—31111123E. Precek—1187101
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