TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Bartik vs Matej Holub 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 41 - B1 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115115117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:00 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Bartik at 54.3%
50 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 2–1 Matej Holub Matej Holub has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0054.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Bartik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1701 vs Holub 1579
Bartik
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 40% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 30% vs Holub 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik +1 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Bartik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bartik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.80 / Holub 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bartik)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13271745
Bartik1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Oct 02) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 74 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it98% 42 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 57 of 77
Holub1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 43 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back29% 15 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBartik2wins
AwayHolub1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBartik leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik2Holub1n = 3Bartik took 2 of 3
S2Bartik1Holub2n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
S3Bartik2Holub1n = 3Bartik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBartikHolubB − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.331.3+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 331 vs 127 / 23358%54.5%192 / 331 vs 127 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.80/Holub 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bartik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 10 · 06:05T. Bartik331111113M. Holub175570
WOct 2 · 13:09T. Bartik521091111113M. Holub4112113872
LOct 2 · 12:35T. Bartik27117811M. Holub3631111113
T. Bartik10
WOct 10 · 07:05T. Bartik1.611511113T. Palan2.2013960WOct 2 · 13:09M. Holub2.5012113872T. Bartik1.471091111113LOct 2 · 12:35T. Bartik1.57117811M. Holub2.2531111113LOct 2 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.73111211113T. Bartik2.00614831LOct 2 · 10:35D. Lengal2.001211113T. Bartik1.7310730WSep 30 · 17:15F. Karel1.5897100T. Bartik2.251111123LSep 30 · 16:05F. Karel1.831111113T. Bartik1.834880LSep 30 · 15:35T. Beran2.501181111113T. Bartik1.5081113862LSep 30 · 14:35T. Bartik1.67119781M. Mastera2.1071111113LSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772
M. Holub10
WOct 10 · 07:35M. Holub2.001115613123J. Ruzicka1.7313131111102LOct 9 · 08:05T. Trnka1.36111011113M. Holub3.00412751WOct 9 · 08:01T. Trnka3.0011841192M. Holub1.36311115113WOct 9 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.20118481M. Holub1.6131111113WOct 4 · 13:05M. Mastera1.33911111072M. Holub3.25115912113LOct 4 · 12:35T. Trnka1.281111113M. Holub3.508640LOct 4 · 11:35M. Holub2.38711691O. Stehlik1.5311611113LOct 4 · 10:05M. Mastera1.531111113M. Holub2.385580LOct 2 · 13:09M. Holub2.5012113872T. Bartik1.471091111113WOct 2 · 12:35T. Bartik1.57117811M. Holub2.2531111113
Upcoming Matches
T. Bartik
Nothing scheduled
M. Holub
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