TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Przybyla vs Patrik Jokiel 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 51 - H1 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115118711117––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:40 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJan Przybyla to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Przybyla above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Jan Przybyla at 54.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jan Przybyla 12–7 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4054.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Przybyla
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Przybyla
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przybyla 1446 vs Jokiel 1343
Przybyla
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przybyla 20% vs Jokiel 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przybyla 30% vs Jokiel 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Przybyla -3 · Jokiel -2
Przybyla
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Przybyla) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzybyla 1.727 / Jokiel 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Przybyla)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13271236
Przybyla1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 41 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it70% 30 of 43
Jokiel2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back33% 27 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrzybyla5wins
AwayJokiel5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzybyla57.1%4 of 7
AwayJokiel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przybyla7Jokiel3n = 10Przybyla took 7 of 10
S2Przybyla4Jokiel6n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S3Przybyla6Jokiel4n = 10Przybyla took 6 of 10
S4Przybyla6Jokiel4n = 10Przybyla took 6 of 10
S5Przybyla2Jokiel5n = 7Jokiel took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrzybylaJokielP − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.543.4+2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzybylaJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 471 vs 229 / 50051%45.8%240 / 471 vs 229 / 500Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PrzybylaPrzybyla 1.73/Jokiel 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Przybyla · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Przybyla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 21:20J. Przybyla4111115682P. Jokiel42721111113
WSep 26 · 19:15J. Przybyla50119811113P. Jokiel3731111752
WJul 12 · 15:45J. Przybyla511212115113P. Jokiel52141081192
WMay 2 · 07:45J. Przybyla4111116133P. Jokiel357611111
WApr 24 · 09:20J. Przybyla3911611113P. Jokiel32611871
LApr 24 · 06:15J. Przybyla4514611772P. Jokiel521211711113
WApr 13 · 07:15J. Przybyla4211612133P. Jokiel3751110111
LMar 24 · 07:10J. Przybyla52911126142P. Jokiel561181011163
LFeb 22 · 09:55J. Przybyla4696111192P. Jokiel44111147113
LFeb 22 · 08:40J. Przybyla48111361172P. Jokiel47715113113
J. Przybyla10
LOct 10 · 07:45J. Przybyla1.83310111192A. Drozd1.83111289113WOct 10 · 06:45J. Przybyla1.8311117113V. Reska1.83891181LOct 7 · 20:45J. Przybyla2.256860A. Kanak1.571111113LOct 7 · 20:15D. Branny2.0011711113J. Przybyla1.73711891LOct 7 · 19:15J. Przybyla1.914780D. Vitasek1.801111113WOct 7 · 17:45A. Kanak1.619811101J. Przybyla2.2011113123LOct 6 · 12:44T. Kindl1.449131012123J. Przybyla2.6311111210102LOct 6 · 12:15D. Pawlik1.9111119113J. Przybyla1.80761181LOct 6 · 11:15J. Przybyla2.63116315102R. Sedlacek1.449111113123LOct 6 · 09:45T. Kindl1.501111113J. Przybyla2.506690
P. Jokiel10
WOct 10 · 07:15P. Jokiel2.0011911113A. Drozd1.73611571LOct 9 · 08:40P. Jokiel2.206350J. Matus1.601111113LOct 9 · 08:10P. Jokiel2.1031280J. Sindler1.671114113WOct 9 · 06:40J. Matus1.44911101182P. Jokiel2.63117126113LOct 9 · 06:10O. Vaclahovsky1.80101111113P. Jokiel1.91128691LOct 8 · 08:39P. Jokiel2.007790J. Matus1.731111113LOct 8 · 08:10P. Jokiel1.61126951L. Snr2.20101111113LOct 8 · 08:10P. Jokiel1.80126951L. Krupnik Jr1.90101111113LOct 8 · 06:40O. Skvor1.611111113P. Jokiel2.206680WOct 8 · 06:10J. Matus1.577812111P. Jokiel2.25111110133
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