TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Aristarkhov vs Oleksandr Lyman 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117112117––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched: 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 49 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 86.8%
49 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 36–5 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 5 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2986.8%Our read87.6%to break even at 1.142
short by 0.8pp87.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.142 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
36-5 in 41
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 31 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1649 vs Lyman 1388
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 261 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 60% vs Lyman 20%
Aristarkhov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 70% vs Lyman 30%
Aristarkhov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov +2 · Lyman -4
Lyman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% · Strong (leans Aristarkhov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (60%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.142 / Lyman 5.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Aristarkhov)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13271066
Aristarkhov1.14
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 95 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it96% 46 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82
Lyman5.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 68 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov9wins
AwayLyman1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov100%7 of 7
AwayLyman33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov7Lyman3n = 10Aristarkhov took 7 of 10
S2Aristarkhov8Lyman2n = 10Aristarkhov took 8 of 10
S3Aristarkhov8Lyman2n = 10Aristarkhov took 8 of 10
S4Aristarkhov3Lyman2n = 5Aristarkhov took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovLymanA − LBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.829.3+10.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 545 vs 267 / 63454.5%42.1%297 / 545 vs 267 / 634Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.14/Lyman 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov4571512113O. Lyman4311131091
WAug 22 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov331111113O. Lyman195770
WJun 20 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov331111113O. Lyman166460
WJun 6 · 17:03S. Aristarkhov331111113O. Lyman257990
LJun 6 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov449915111O. Lyman48111113133
WMay 30 · 16:30S. Aristarkhov331111113O. Lyman113620
WMay 23 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov4413119113O. Lyman321161141
WMay 16 · 14:00S. Aristarkhov331111113O. Lyman186750
WMay 9 · 17:10S. Aristarkhov46119411113O. Lyman4291111742
WMay 9 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov549111112113O. Lyman3911731442
S. Aristarkhov10
WOct 10 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov1.331111113D. Kuzmenko3.257650WOct 4 · 17:03O. Syksa1.9111451262S. Aristarkhov1.807111110113LOct 4 · 16:30S. Aristarkhov1.50312641A. Vasylets2.5011101153LOct 4 · 15:30S. Aristarkhov1.9112119111M. Hubenko1.8014911133WOct 4 · 14:00S. Aristarkhov1.80811911113O. Syksa1.9111811932WOct 4 · 13:00S. Aristarkhov1.401113119113D. Kuzmenko2.7571571162WSep 27 · 10:30A. Lushchyk1.4484111172S. Aristarkhov2.63111136113LSep 27 · 09:30S. Aristarkhov1.839990M. Hubenko1.831111113WSep 27 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov1.3611116113D. Kuzmenko3.00871191WSep 27 · 07:00S. Aristarkhov1.251111113O. Ziakun3.757550
O. Lyman10
LOct 10 · 14:30O. Lyman2.631371271D. Kuzmenko1.44151110113LOct 10 · 12:30O. Lyman4.3311851142O. Syksa1.20711116113LOct 9 · 11:00O. Syksa1.2271111113O. Lyman4.00116681LOct 9 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.33111115113O. Lyman3.25981761LOct 9 · 08:30O. Kurylenko1.671111113O. Lyman2.104790WOct 9 · 06:30S. Miroshnychenko3.251146101O. Lyman1.3391111123LOct 9 · 04:30O. Ziakun1.571171110113O. Lyman2.2541191272WOct 8 · 11:00O. Lyman4.5011118113O. Syksa1.17471181LOct 8 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.57111139113O. Lyman2.25114111152LOct 8 · 08:00O. Lyman3.4091161172M. Hubenko1.30114119113
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