TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Kraninger vs Matyas Kolek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118116511117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:29 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Kraninger to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kraninger above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 70 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Kraninger at 55.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kraninger 2–2 Matyas Kolek Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2955.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kraninger
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kraninger 1350 vs Kolek 1331
Kraninger
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kraninger 40% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kraninger 40% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kraninger -3 · Kolek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kraninger) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraninger form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKraninger 1.666 / Kolek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kraninger)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269353
Kraninger1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 12 days ago (Sep 28) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 27 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Kolek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 03)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 41 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKraninger2wins
AwayKolek2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kraninger2Kolek2n = 4split evenly
S2Kraninger3Kolek1n = 4Kraninger took 3 of 4
S3Kraninger2Kolek2n = 4split evenly
S4Kraninger1Kolek2n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKraningerKolekKraninger − KolekBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.032.5+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKraningerKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 248 vs 135 / 26547.6%50.9%118 / 248 vs 135 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KraningerKraninger 1.67/Kolek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Kraninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kraninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 10 · 06:30T. Kraninger3811115113M. Kolek32861171
LSep 28 · 08:00T. Kraninger335511121M. Kolek4211116143
WSep 18 · 20:58T. Kraninger331111113M. Kolek194780
LSep 18 · 20:30T. Kraninger28511751M. Kolek3711411113
T. Kraninger10
LOct 10 · 07:00A. Virag2.10111188113T. Kraninger1.6778111132LSep 28 · 09:00T. Kraninger1.5321191192A. Virag2.38119118113LSep 28 · 08:00T. Kraninger1.445511121M. Kolek2.6311116143LSep 28 · 07:30J. Stach2.2011311113T. Kraninger1.61711991WSep 28 · 06:00T. Kraninger1.571111113A. Virag2.255340WSep 25 · 21:30T. Kraninger1.501111113M. Jasek2.405580LSep 25 · 20:30R. Kvasnicka2.50411118113T. Kraninger1.5011891192WSep 25 · 19:30T. Kraninger1.571111113M. Jasek2.259990WSep 25 · 18:30J. Peter2.25813127102T. Kraninger1.5711111011123LSep 20 · 17:10M. Kowolowski1.4041111113T. Kraninger2.75114581
M. Kolek10
LOct 10 · 07:30M. Kolek3.2511961272M. Kowolowski1.335111110113LOct 3 · 21:00M. Kolek2.50651131L. Jemelka1.5011118113LOct 3 · 20:30M. Kolek2.201110681D. Priesol1.6171211113LOct 3 · 19:00M. Kolek2.7561070R. Kvasnicka1.401112113WOct 3 · 18:00L. Jemelka1.2511117972M. Kolek3.75681111113WOct 3 · 09:00M. Kolek1.36114311113A. Schneeberger3.0051111682LOct 3 · 08:00R. Kvasnicka1.501112113M. Kolek2.5051050LOct 3 · 07:00A. Virag1.671051111113M. Kolek2.1012114672WOct 3 · 06:30M. Kolek1.801111113A. Schneeberger1.914950WSep 28 · 08:00T. Kraninger1.445511121M. Kolek2.6311116143
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