TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Matousch vs Lukas Vich 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181012117711116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched: 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeLukas Vich to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Lukas Vich below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Lukas Vich at 59.4%
94 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 4–3 Lukas Vich Lukas Vich has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Matousch beat Vich 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:2559.4%Our read61.7%to break even at 1.62
short by 2.3pp61.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.62 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Vich
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1370 vs Vich 1555
Vich
Wrong
both rated, 185 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 40% vs Vich 80%
Vich
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 30% vs Vich 70%
Vich
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -1 · Vich +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Vich) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vich form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 2.15 / Vich 1.62
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vich)-2.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266642
Matousch2.15
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 24 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back12% 5 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Vich1.62
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 37 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 24 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMatousch4wins
AwayVich3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderMatousch leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch66.7%2 of 3
AwayVich50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch3Vich4n = 7Vich took 4 of 7
S2Matousch4Vich3n = 7Matousch took 4 of 7
S3Matousch5Vich2n = 7Matousch took 5 of 7
S4Matousch5Vich1n = 6Matousch took 5 of 6
S5Matousch1Vich3n = 4Vich took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMatouschVichM − VBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match41.939.0+2.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschVichBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 333 vs 243 / 51344.1%47.4%147 / 333 vs 243 / 513Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VichMatousch 2.15/Vich 1.62
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.4%
Vich · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 8 · 19:55S. Matousch43101111113L. Vich30128461
WSep 30 · 22:00S. Matousch3711211133L. Vich348114111
LSep 30 · 20:50S. Matousch42101111462L. Vich45128311113
LSep 14 · 22:00S. Matousch4713871182L. Vich511111117113
WSep 14 · 19:50S. Matousch331111113L. Vich208570
WAug 31 · 22:00S. Matousch48512911113L. Vich46111011772
LAug 31 · 19:20S. Matousch4375111192L. Vich47111186113
S. Matousch10
LOct 8 · 21:25S. Matousch2.253101191Z. Vyskocil1.5711125113WOct 8 · 19:55L. Vich1.55128461S. Matousch2.25101111113WOct 8 · 19:25P. Cibik1.5711581182S. Matousch2.25711119113LOct 5 · 13:35S. Matousch1.8011891192M. Kolbusovsky1.90811114113LOct 5 · 12:50J. Vintr1.83117311143S. Matousch1.83811117122WOct 5 · 11:50S. Matousch1.40611911113O. Sebek2.7511611582LOct 5 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky2.381111410113S. Matousch1.5357111292LOct 2 · 21:28T. Cerveny Jr1.36911811113S. Matousch3.0011911572LOct 2 · 20:20S. Matousch2.207830P. Cibik1.611111113LOct 2 · 19:20S. Matousch1.7311109121Z. Vyskocil2.0071211143
L. Vich10
WOct 8 · 20:55L. Vich1.8791111113P. Cibik1.83114291LOct 8 · 19:55L. Vich1.55128461S. Matousch2.25101111113WOct 8 · 18:55L. Vich1.77911911113Z. Vyskocil1.9511511662WOct 7 · 21:48L. Vich1.36111112123R. Zeman3.006814101WOct 7 · 20:50R. Zeman2.387830L. Vich1.531111113LOct 7 · 19:50L. Vich1.73611711122J. Mach2.00118114143WOct 7 · 18:20M. Nemec2.75116110L. Vich1.401311133LSep 30 · 22:00L. Vich1.738114111S. Matousch2.0011211133WSep 30 · 20:50S. Matousch2.10101111462L. Vich1.67128311113WSep 30 · 19:50L. Vich1.731111113J. Mach2.009790
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