TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Rein vs Petr Vodal 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1156113111141113
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:12 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Rein to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 86 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Tomas Rein at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 40–38 Petr Vodal Petr Vodal has won 38 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1254.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rein
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-38 in 78
Rein
Wrong
gap of 2 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1436 vs Vodal 1414
Rein
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 80% vs Vodal 60%
Rein
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 50% vs Vodal 30%
Rein
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +4 · Vodal -2
Rein
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rein) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 1.80 / Vodal 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rein)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266617
Rein1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 54 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Vodal1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 05)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 49 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back32% 18 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein7wins
AwayVodal3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRein leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein71.4%5 of 7
AwayVodal33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein7Vodal3n = 10Rein took 7 of 10
S2Rein3Vodal7n = 10Vodal took 7 of 10
S3Rein7Vodal3n = 10Rein took 7 of 10
S4Rein5Vodal2n = 7Rein took 5 of 7
S5Rein2Vodal1n = 3Rein took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinVodalR − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.336.7+3.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime377 / 848 vs 244 / 48344.5%50.5%377 / 848 vs 244 / 483Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ReinRein 1.80/Vodal 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rein · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 12:20T. Rein4211911113P. Vodal32411981
LSep 12 · 07:55T. Rein2571260P. Vodal361114113
WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein48771211113P. Vodal48111110972
WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein55141114163P. Vodal51121312141
WAug 30 · 11:20T. Rein4271212113P. Vodal3411101031
WAug 29 · 12:55T. Rein331111113P. Vodal165470
WAug 27 · 15:50T. Rein47118116113P. Vodal3951141182
LAug 25 · 14:50T. Rein42114111152P. Vodal53911139113
LAug 22 · 06:55T. Rein35116991P. Vodal4071111113
WAug 21 · 17:50T. Rein341112113P. Vodal1851030
T. Rein10
LOct 9 · 12:20T. Rein2.259980T. Cerveny Jr1.571111113WOct 9 · 11:20T. Rein3.4011811113T. Hnizdil1.30711791WOct 7 · 13:50T. Rein2.4511116113F. Dvorak1.48891121WOct 7 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.50511100T. Rein2.501113123WOct 7 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.304590T. Rein3.401111113WOct 7 · 10:50T. Rein1.5011911113D. Vojna2.50211951LOct 5 · 21:33T. Rein2.63112791J. Cousin1.4451111113WOct 5 · 20:20T. Rein2.381113712113J. Cousin1.53515111092LOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113LOct 5 · 18:20T. Rein2.506490J. Dohnal1.501111113
P. Vodal10
LOct 9 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.201112113P. Vodal4.3321070LOct 9 · 11:50P. Vodal1.571146121T. Cerveny Jr2.2551111143LOct 5 · 18:30V. Koutnik1.4815141113P. Vodal2.4513121191LOct 5 · 17:25P. Vodal2.50116681V. Koutnik1.5091111113WOct 5 · 15:55P. Kubat1.831111111182P. Vodal1.83891313113WOct 5 · 15:25Z. Muhlhauser1.67111111482P. Vodal2.10136211113WSep 24 · 13:24D. Vojna1.80811121252P. Vodal1.911191014113LSep 24 · 12:20P. Vodal1.83411981T. Rein1.8311911113LSep 24 · 11:20P. Vodal1.8316117882D. Vojna1.831491111113LSep 24 · 10:20P. Vodal2.10611831B. Budik1.6511611113
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