TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Radek Slunecko vs David Sabuka 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Slunecko above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 · our read held David Sabuka at 58.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Radek Slunecko 2–6 David Sabuka Radek Slunecko has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2658.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sabuka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Sabuka
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slunecko 1393 vs Sabuka 1402
Sabuka
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slunecko 20% vs Sabuka 60%
Sabuka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slunecko 30% vs Sabuka 60%
Sabuka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slunecko +1 · Sabuka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Sabuka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slunecko form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlunecko 2.20 / Sabuka 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sabuka)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13265824
Slunecko2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 16 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Sabuka1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 63 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 45 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSlunecko2wins
AwaySabuka6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderSabuka leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSluneckon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySabuka100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slunecko2Sabuka6n = 8Sabuka took 6 of 8
S2Slunecko1Sabuka7n = 8Sabuka took 7 of 8
S3Slunecko5Sabuka3n = 8Slunecko took 5 of 8
S4Slunecko2Sabuka3n = 5Sabuka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away563%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSluneckoSabukaSlunecko − SabukaBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match36.339.3−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSluneckoSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 150 vs 251 / 52449.3%47.9%74 / 150 vs 251 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaSlunecko 2.20/Sabuka 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Slunecko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 23 · 12:33R. Slunecko48118711113D. Sabuka4371111862
LSep 23 · 09:30R. Slunecko331121191D. Sabuka4413119113
LJun 18 · 12:26R. Slunecko3910111171D. Sabuka4412138113
LJun 18 · 11:00R. Slunecko217860D. Sabuka331111113
LMay 24 · 20:00R. Slunecko35871191D. Sabuka4211119113
WMar 27 · 10:15R. Slunecko4211119113D. Sabuka30381181
R. Slunecko10
WOct 9 · 20:29K. Polak1.83118611112R. Slunecko1.83911116133LOct 9 · 19:30R. Slunecko2.0054111162K. Polak1.73111178113WOct 9 · 18:30R. Slunecko1.67913911113M. Cmil2.10111111852WSep 23 · 12:33D. Sabuka1.5071111862R. Slunecko2.50118711113LSep 23 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.44111281152J. Blazek2.635101113113LSep 23 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57711871M. Melisek2.2511811113LSep 23 · 09:30R. Slunecko2.501121191D. Sabuka1.5013119113LSep 1 · 13:09M. Vorel1.4011115113R. Slunecko2.75961171WSep 1 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.6711911113J. Jnr2.10911491WSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832
D. Sabuka10
WOct 9 · 21:00D. Sabuka1.501111113M. Cmil2.505760WOct 9 · 20:00M. Cmil2.0059100D. Sabuka1.731111123LOct 9 · 19:00K. Polak2.201111118113D. Sabuka1.6191361192LOct 6 · 09:09J. Jnr3.0011711113D. Sabuka1.36611561WOct 6 · 07:30P. Moulis1.8316100D. Sabuka1.831111123LOct 6 · 07:00D. Sabuka1.80912781J. Krejcik1.91111011113WOct 6 · 06:00D. Sabuka1.531111133J. Jnr2.3826110WOct 3 · 20:58P. Moulis1.80124111182D. Sabuka1.91141185113LSep 23 · 12:33D. Sabuka1.5071111862R. Slunecko2.50118711113WSep 23 · 09:30R. Slunecko2.501121191D. Sabuka1.5013119113
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