TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Pesout vs Simon Mezlik 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181315119116––
Simon Mezlik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Mezlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Simon Mezlik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 84 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Simon Mezlik at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 2–1 Simon Mezlik Simon Mezlik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Pesout beat Mezlik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3354.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pesout
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1371 vs Mezlik 1346
Pesout
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 60% vs Mezlik 80%
Mezlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 60% vs Mezlik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout +3 · Mezlik +2
Pesout
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mezlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mezlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 1.727 / Mezlik 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mezlik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13265442
Pesout1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite45% won 19 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it70% 14 of 20
Mezlik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog25% won 3 of 12
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePesout2wins
AwayMezlik1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderPesout leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesoutn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMezlik33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout0Mezlik3n = 3Mezlik took 3 of 3
S2Pesout2Mezlik1n = 3Pesout took 2 of 3
S3Pesout1Mezlik2n = 3Mezlik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricPesoutMezlikP − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match39.742.0−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutMezlikBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 368 vs 7 / 1846.2%38.9%170 / 368 vs 7 / 18Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.531.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MezlikPesout 1.73/Mezlik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mezlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 8 · 14:35P. Pesout531111911113S. Mezlik4613711782
LOct 7 · 17:04P. Pesout2612770S. Mezlik361411113
WOct 7 · 15:35P. Pesout40411113113S. Mezlik4411871172
P. Pesout10
WOct 8 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.80118951P. Pesout1.9151111113WOct 8 · 15:35J. Vranca2.25117981P. Pesout1.5771111113WOct 8 · 14:35P. Pesout2.101111911113S. Mezlik1.6713711782LOct 7 · 17:04P. Pesout1.5012770S. Mezlik2.501411113LOct 7 · 16:05L. Vana1.671111133P. Pesout2.1067110WOct 7 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.2511871172P. Pesout1.57411113113LOct 7 · 14:35P. Pesout1.4011981182V. Kaisler2.75811114113WOct 5 · 17:18J. Vranca—8650P. Pesout—1111113LOct 5 · 15:05J. Manhal Jr1.531111113P. Pesout2.388690WOct 5 · 14:35L. Vosyka1.44119581P. Pesout2.6371111113
S. Mezlik10
WOct 8 · 16:35S. Mezlik1.57611119113J. Vranca2.2511661162WOct 8 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.7351350S. Mezlik2.001115113LOct 8 · 14:35P. Pesout2.101111911113S. Mezlik1.6713711782WOct 7 · 17:04P. Pesout1.5012770S. Mezlik2.501411113WOct 7 · 16:35V. Kaisler1.8310680S. Mezlik1.831211113LOct 7 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.2511871172P. Pesout1.57411113113LOct 7 · 14:05L. Vana1.331111113S. Mezlik3.256960LOct 4 · 09:09S. Mezlik2.20511871M. Chmelicek1.6111711113WOct 4 · 08:35M. Chmelicek1.3651111692S. Mezlik3.00119211113LOct 4 · 07:35S. Mezlik2.756410J. Martin1.401111113
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