TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jaroslaw Badura vs Waldemar Glanowski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117113––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 65.9% is still 65.9%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
65.9%
65.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
48 points played in total.
Set by set
115117113––––
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 2–1 Waldemar Glanowski Waldemar Glanowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Badura beat Glanowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5965.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.57
clears by 2.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.57 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Badura
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badura 1431 vs Glanowski 1221
Badura
Correct
both rated, 210 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 60% vs Glanowski 40%
Badura
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 70% vs Glanowski 20%
Badura
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura -1 · Glanowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Badura) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 1.57 / Glanowski 2.20
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Badura)+2.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13265010
Badura1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 85 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it88% 61 of 69
Glanowski2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 82 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBadura2wins
AwayGlanowski1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBadura leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badura1Glanowski2n = 3Glanowski took 2 of 3
S2Badura2Glanowski1n = 3Badura took 2 of 3
S3Badura3Glanowski0n = 3Badura took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBaduraGlanowskiB − GBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.032.0+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraGlanowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 579 vs 373 / 72655.4%51.4%321 / 579 vs 373 / 726Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraBadura 1.57/Glanowski 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.9%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 8 · 09:05J. Badura331111113W. Glanowski239590
WAug 27 · 15:55J. Badura3961111113W. Glanowski28114491
LAug 27 · 09:55J. Badura45391111112W. Glanowski45111173133
J. Badura10
LOct 8 · 13:55J. Badura1.5711881172P. Slosarczyk2.20911118113WOct 8 · 12:45J. Nowak2.451161181J. Badura1.4713118113LOct 8 · 11:55J. Badura1.87781141K. Schaniel1.8311116113WOct 8 · 10:20J. Badura1.40511128183J. Nowak2.751191011162WOct 8 · 09:05J. Badura1.421111113W. Glanowski2.559590WOct 8 · 07:55J. Badura1.641111113P. Slosarczyk2.138360WOct 8 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek2.472371261J. Badura1.49211114113WOct 8 · 05:55J. Badura1.80611611113K. Schaniel1.8611511562WOct 7 · 01:45J. Badura1.20181111113I. Szymanski4.33209561LOct 7 · 00:35J. Badura2.933480K. Durak1.301111113
W. Glanowski10
LOct 8 · 14:20J. Nowak2.008111213113W. Glanowski1.70119141182WOct 8 · 13:30W. Glanowski2.32811611113K. Schaniel1.5511411762WOct 8 · 12:20W. Glanowski1.858111115113J. Kaczmarek1.85111341392LOct 8 · 10:40W. Glanowski1.85116861P. Slosarczyk1.8051111113LOct 8 · 09:05J. Badura1.421111113W. Glanowski2.559590LOct 8 · 08:20J. Kaczmarek2.0071211113W. Glanowski1.711110891LOct 8 · 07:30W. Glanowski2.2511441182K. Schaniel1.55711118113LOct 8 · 06:20W. Glanowski1.83101211862J. Nowak1.871210811113LOct 6 · 14:40W. Glanowski1.834570P. Slosarczyk1.831111113LOct 6 · 13:05W. Glanowski2.10111211692P. Przewlocki1.67614611113
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