TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jaroslaw Badura vs Krzysztof Schaniel 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711811116411––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
711811116411––
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 2–7 Krzysztof Schaniel Jaroslaw Badura has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5454.0%Our read53.5%to break even at 1.87
clears by 0.5pp53.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.87 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Schaniel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Schaniel
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badura 1462 vs Schaniel 1338
Badura
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 100% vs Schaniel 80%
Badura
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 80% vs Schaniel 60%
Badura
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura +6 · Schaniel +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Badura) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 1.87 / Schaniel 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Badura)+0.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13264295
Badura1.87
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 52 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Schaniel1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite58% won 193 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it90% 92 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it75% 143 of 192
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBadura2wins
AwaySchaniel7wins
4 of 9 to a deciderSchaniel leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaduran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySchaniel71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badura2Schaniel7n = 9Schaniel took 7 of 9
S2Badura3Schaniel6n = 9Schaniel took 6 of 9
S3Badura2Schaniel7n = 9Schaniel took 7 of 9
S4Badura3Schaniel3n = 6split evenly
S5Badura2Schaniel2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricBaduraSchanielB − SBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match33.240.2−7.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 576 vs 860 / 173755.6%49.5%320 / 576 vs 860 / 1737Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraBadura 1.87/Schaniel 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 8 · 05:55J. Badura45611611113K. Schaniel3811511562
LOct 6 · 23:20J. Badura237880K. Schaniel331111113
WOct 6 · 17:20J. Badura529111011113K. Schaniel4111812552
LJan 26 · 03:45J. Badura24741121K. Schaniel3611113113
LJan 25 · 19:25J. Badura45911112122K. Schaniel51118711143
LOct 8 · 21:35J. Badura331254121K. Schaniel46101111143
LOct 7 · 04:20J. Badura4311661462K. Schaniel516111112113
LOct 6 · 18:45J. Badura165470K. Schaniel331111113
LAug 7 · 18:25J. Badura189450K. Schaniel331111113
J. Badura10
WOct 8 · 12:45J. Nowak2.451161181J. Badura1.4713118113WOct 8 · 10:20J. Badura1.40511128183J. Nowak2.751191011162WOct 8 · 09:05J. Badura1.421111113W. Glanowski2.559590WOct 8 · 07:55J. Badura1.641111113P. Slosarczyk2.138360WOct 8 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek2.472371261J. Badura1.49211114113WOct 8 · 05:55J. Badura1.80611611113K. Schaniel1.8611511562WOct 7 · 01:45J. Badura1.20181111113I. Szymanski4.33209561LOct 7 · 00:35J. Badura2.933480K. Durak1.301111113LOct 6 · 23:20J. Badura1.747880K. Schaniel1.951111113WOct 6 · 22:10P. Kurek1.743980J. Badura1.861111113
K. Schaniel10
LOct 8 · 13:30W. Glanowski2.32811611113K. Schaniel1.5511411762WOct 8 · 11:05J. Kaczmarek2.15117841K. Schaniel1.6491111113WOct 8 · 09:55K. Schaniel1.681011711113P. Slosarczyk2.0512911752WOct 8 · 08:45J. Nowak2.658680K. Schaniel1.431111113WOct 8 · 07:30W. Glanowski2.2511441182K. Schaniel1.55711118113LOct 8 · 05:55J. Badura1.80611611113K. Schaniel1.8611511562WOct 7 · 02:10K. Durak1.25109110K. Schaniel3.751211133LOct 7 · 01:25M. Baron2.503K. Schaniel1.500WOct 6 · 23:20J. Badura1.747880K. Schaniel1.951111113LOct 6 · 22:35I. Szymanski2.7511117113K. Schaniel1.40931141
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