TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Smesny vs Jiri Grohsgott 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411119511811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Grohsgott to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Jiri Grohsgott below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 65.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 12–33 Jiri Grohsgott Milan Smesny has won 12 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2865.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Grohsgott
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-33 in 45
Grohsgott
Correct
gap of 21 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1210 vs Grohsgott 1205
Smesny
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 80% vs Grohsgott 40%
Smesny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 60% vs Grohsgott 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +4 · Grohsgott +1
Smesny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Grohsgott) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grohsgott form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 2.75 / Grohsgott 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Grohsgott)-5.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264745
Smesny2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 19 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Grohsgott1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 144 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it93% 81 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it81% 109 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmesny0wins
AwayGrohsgott10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGrohsgott leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesny0%0 of 3
AwayGrohsgott100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny3Grohsgott7n = 10Grohsgott took 7 of 10
S2Smesny3Grohsgott7n = 10Grohsgott took 7 of 10
S3Smesny0Grohsgott10n = 10Grohsgott took 10 of 10
S4Smesny1Grohsgott3n = 4Grohsgott took 3 of 4
S5Smesny0Grohsgott3n = 3Grohsgott took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmesnyGrohsgottS − GBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.439.8−10.4per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyGrohsgottBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 347 vs 730 / 149052.7%49%183 / 347 vs 730 / 1490Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottSmesny 2.75/Grohsgott 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 07:30M. Smesny28411581J. Grohsgott4211911113
LOct 6 · 07:30M. Smesny45111171152J. Grohsgott50913116113
LMay 13 · 06:00M. Smesny156360J. Grohsgott331111113
LMay 8 · 07:00M. Smesny124440J. Grohsgott331111113
LApr 24 · 12:00M. Smesny269890J. Grohsgott331111113
LMar 10 · 01:00M. Smesny46111171072J. Grohsgott51891112113
LJan 29 · 09:57M. Smesny3087150J. Grohsgott391111173
LJan 29 · 09:30M. Smesny165650J. Grohsgott331111113
LJan 15 · 08:30M. Smesny49111261192J. Grohsgott505101113113
LJan 14 · 08:30M. Smesny2798100J. Grohsgott341111123
M. Smesny10
LOct 9 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5011311113M. Smesny2.50411781WOct 9 · 06:30D. Mutl1.4449111192M. Smesny2.63111194113WOct 7 · 09:30D. Tomasch2.63111177132M. Smesny1.44971111153WOct 7 · 08:00M. Smesny1.5011118133D. Tomasch2.506811111WOct 7 · 07:30C. Havrda2.201191081M. Smesny1.6161112113LOct 7 · 06:00M. Smesny1.833690J. Vrba1.831111113LOct 6 · 09:30M. Smesny1.3381191122L. Novotny3.25117115113WOct 6 · 08:30L. Novotny2.6381111342M. Smesny1.44119811113LOct 6 · 07:30M. Smesny3.00111171152J. Grohsgott1.36913116113WOct 6 · 06:30D. Tomasch2.00691451M. Smesny1.73111112113
J. Grohsgott10
LOct 9 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.50911101192D. Mutl2.50119129113WOct 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.73111199113M. Vrabec2.0086111142LOct 7 · 03:00J. Grohsgott1.73211241M. Syroha2.0011811113LOct 7 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.737360M. Syroha2.001111113LOct 7 · 00:30L. Madle1.8081111113J. Grohsgott1.91115991WOct 6 · 23:30S. Mazanek1.675930J. Grohsgott2.101111113WOct 6 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.5311117113D. Mutl2.38721131WOct 6 · 08:58J. Grohsgott1.831111113D. Tomasch1.836670WOct 6 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.67611711113D. Tomasch2.1011611782WOct 6 · 07:30M. Smesny3.00111171152J. Grohsgott1.36913116113
Upcoming Matches
M. Smesny
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J. Grohsgott
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