TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Marsalek vs David Stusek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · David Stusek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 · our read held David Stusek at 65.3%
53 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:0365.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Marsalek 1514 vs Stusek 1601
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marsalek 20% vs Stusek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marsalek 30% vs Stusek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marsalek -3 · Stusek -2
Marsalek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Stusek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarsalek 2.625 / Stusek 1.444
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Stusek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13264263
Marsalek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 19 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Stusek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 30 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarsalekStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 127 vs 106 / 21446.5%49.5%59 / 127 vs 106 / 214Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StusekMarsalek 2.63/Stusek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stusek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
P. Marsalek10
LOct 8 · 17:40M. Zaskodny1.281111113P. Marsalek3.505640LOct 3 · 08:55P. Marsalek2.501111491F. Chaloupka1.5013811113LOct 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.671212511113P. Marsalek2.10101411682WOct 3 · 07:15P. Marsalek3.40811514113F. Chaloupka1.30115111262LOct 3 · 05:45B. Moravec1.44111111113P. Marsalek2.63913421WOct 1 · 20:40J. Travnicek1.50310100P. Marsalek2.501112123LOct 1 · 20:15P. Marsalek1.618490D. Vitasek2.201111113LOct 1 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.6112511113P. Marsalek2.201011881LOct 1 · 18:15I. Heuman1.7311117123P. Marsalek2.003511101WSep 20 · 09:15P. Marsalek1.531213113J. Przybyla2.38101140
D. Stusek10
LOct 8 · 19:40M. Zaskodny1.831111113D. Stusek1.838690LOct 8 · 18:10D. Stusek1.5711791172I. Heuman2.25811117113LOct 7 · 16:45D. Stusek1.8311118832D. Skulina1.83551111113WOct 7 · 16:15D. Skulina1.73116771D. Stusek2.0091111113LOct 7 · 15:15D. Stusek2.108101161F. Chaloupka1.6711128113LOct 7 · 13:45M. Zaskodny1.831111123D. Stusek1.8399100WOct 2 · 21:25D. Stusek1.331111113D. Vitasek3.259670LOct 2 · 19:45L. Slavik1.9111116113D. Stusek1.80991191WOct 2 · 19:15D. Vitasek3.005590D. Stusek1.361111113WOct 2 · 18:15D. Stusek1.6091111143K. Kleprlik2.201168121
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