TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Mutl vs Milan Smesny 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411911119114911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 · our read held David Mutl at 61.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 2–2 Milan Smesny Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2761.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 7.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mutl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1161 vs Smesny 1210
Smesny
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 20% vs Smesny 60%
Smesny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 40% vs Smesny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -2 · Smesny +3
Smesny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Mutl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 1.444 / Smesny 2.625
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Mutl)-7.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13263836
Mutl1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 31 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Smesny2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 19 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back10% 3 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMutl2wins
AwaySmesny2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMutl66.7%2 of 3
AwaySmesnyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl3Smesny1n = 4Mutl took 3 of 4
S2Mutl2Smesny2n = 4split evenly
S3Mutl4Smesny0n = 4Mutl took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMutlSmesnyM − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.531.8+7.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlSmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 161 vs 183 / 34747.8%52.7%77 / 161 vs 183 / 347Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MutlMutl 1.44/Smesny 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 9 · 06:30D. Mutl4449111192M. Smesny46111194113
WJun 16 · 10:30D. Mutl351311113M. Smesny2111460
LMay 19 · 22:30D. Mutl46116111082M. Smesny46611612113
WMay 18 · 12:00D. Mutl331111113M. Smesny143380
D. Mutl10
WOct 9 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.50911101192D. Mutl2.50119129113WOct 9 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.731191191D. Mutl2.0013117113LOct 7 · 02:00D. Mutl1.831161121L. Madle1.8381113113LOct 7 · 01:00D. Mutl4.337111171S. Mazanek1.2011134113WOct 7 · 00:00M. Syroha2.0091181172D. Mutl1.73118118113LOct 6 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.5311117113D. Mutl2.38721131LOct 5 · 03:30S. Mazanek1.351111113D. Mutl2.908880LOct 5 · 01:30D. Mutl3.504760S. Mazanek1.281111113WOct 5 · 00:30J. Grohsgott1.40116591D. Mutl2.7571111113WOct 4 · 23:30M. Syroha2.2511134492D. Mutl1.579111111113
M. Smesny10
LOct 9 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5011311113M. Smesny2.50411781LOct 9 · 07:30M. Smesny2.75411581J. Grohsgott1.4011911113WOct 7 · 09:30D. Tomasch2.63111177132M. Smesny1.44971111153WOct 7 · 08:00M. Smesny1.5011118133D. Tomasch2.506811111WOct 7 · 07:30C. Havrda2.201191081M. Smesny1.6161112113LOct 7 · 06:00M. Smesny1.833690J. Vrba1.831111113LOct 6 · 09:30M. Smesny1.3381191122L. Novotny3.25117115113WOct 6 · 08:30L. Novotny2.6381111342M. Smesny1.44119811113LOct 6 · 07:30M. Smesny3.00111171152J. Grohsgott1.36913116113WOct 6 · 06:30D. Tomasch2.00691451M. Smesny1.73111112113
Upcoming Matches
D. Mutl
M. Smesny
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