TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Fiklik vs Jan Vonasek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119911117––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Fiklik above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Jan Vonasek at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Fiklik 65–59 Jan Vonasek Jan Vonasek has won 59 of their 124 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
65-59 in 124
Fiklik
Correct
gap of 6 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fiklik 1522 vs Vonasek 1648
Vonasek
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fiklik 60% vs Vonasek 100%
Vonasek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fiklik 30% vs Vonasek 80%
Vonasek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fiklik +1 · Vonasek +5
Vonasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vonasek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFiklik 1.833 / Vonasek 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vonasek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13261709
Fiklik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Vonasek1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFiklik2wins
AwayVonasek8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFiklik50%2 of 4
AwayVonasek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fiklik4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S2Fiklik4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S3Fiklik5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Fiklik4Vonasek5n = 9Vonasek took 5 of 9
S5Fiklik0Vonasek4n = 4Vonasek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiklikVonasekF − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.443.4−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiklikVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 1212 vs 368 / 73445.5%50.1%551 / 1212 vs 368 / 734Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekFiklik 1.83/Vonasek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fiklik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 07:25O. Fiklik4211119113J. Vonasek33691171
LOct 7 · 09:25O. Fiklik2210480J. Vonasek341211113
LOct 5 · 12:55O. Fiklik48611714102J. Vonasek551191112123
LSep 30 · 09:58O. Fiklik45115711112J. Vonasek45411116133
LSep 30 · 09:25O. Fiklik359111051J. Vonasek3911512113
WSep 24 · 08:25O. Fiklik4011711113J. Vonasek32511881
LSep 21 · 09:25O. Fiklik39114113102J. Vonasek48611811123
LSep 20 · 16:20O. Fiklik38991191J. Vonasek3811115113
LSep 18 · 10:38O. Fiklik403917111J. Vonasek50111115133
LSep 18 · 07:25O. Fiklik55612117192J. Vonasek601110711213
O. Fiklik10
WOct 8 · 08:55A. Langer2.208813131O. Fiklik1.61111111153LOct 8 · 08:25V. Hejda Jr2.2511112113O. Fiklik1.57891181WOct 7 · 09:54O. Fiklik1.53941312113A. Langer2.381111111082LOct 7 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.8310480J. Vonasek1.831211113WOct 7 · 07:55A. Langer2.107150O. Fiklik1.671111113LOct 7 · 07:25V. Hejda Jr2.3811611133O. Fiklik1.537119111WOct 5 · 14:05A. Kral1.7311111612102O. Fiklik2.00851814123LOct 5 · 12:55O. Fiklik1.83611714102J. Vonasek1.831191112123LOct 5 · 11:55O. Fiklik1.5071161182M. Filipek2.50115116113LOct 5 · 10:55O. Fiklik1.578670A. Kral2.251111113
J. Vonasek10
LOct 8 · 07:55A. Langer2.6311811113J. Vonasek1.44711881WOct 7 · 10:23J. Vonasek1.67951111113V. Hejda Jr2.1011115952WOct 7 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.8310480J. Vonasek1.831211113WOct 7 · 08:25J. Vonasek1.613111110113V. Hejda Jr2.2011851292WOct 7 · 06:55A. Langer2.63711681J. Vonasek1.4411711113WOct 6 · 13:25M. Brozek1.67118681J. Vonasek2.1091111113LOct 6 · 12:20A. Langer2.631111113J. Vonasek1.448980WOct 6 · 11:50M. Brozek1.44611121162J. Vonasek2.631191013113LOct 6 · 10:50J. Vonasek2.75138661P. Benes1.40111111113WOct 5 · 12:55O. Fiklik1.83611714102J. Vonasek1.831191112123
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