TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Nemecek Snr vs Martin Drabek 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116114––––
Martin Drabek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:54 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Nemecek Snr to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nemecek Snr above · Martin Drabek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 50 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Jakub Nemecek Snr at 57.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nemecek Snr 1–1 Martin Drabek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5457.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Snr 1444 vs Drabek 1375
Snr
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 20% vs Drabek 40%
Drabek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 40% vs Drabek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +1 · Drabek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Snr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.615 / Drabek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Snr)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260984
Snr1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 6 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it50% 4 of 8
Drabek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 30) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 13 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSnr1wins
AwayDrabek1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSnrDrabekS − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match47.543.0+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrDrabekBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 147 vs 44 / 12341.5%35.8%61 / 147 vs 44 / 123Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.61/Drabek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WMar 12 · 21:00J. Snr5814111111113M. Drabek4516613552
LMar 10 · 20:30J. Snr379711101M. Drabek4111117123
J. Snr10
WOct 8 · 19:30J. Marhol1.7310111351J. Snr2.0012815113WOct 8 · 19:00J. Snr2.2071111113P. Maly1.61115641WOct 4 · 20:28J. Snr2.25111122143O. Karpisek1.57781111122LOct 4 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.8311711113J. Snr1.83711681LOct 4 · 19:00J. Snr1.8311681152F. Kubos1.83511117113LOct 4 · 18:00J. Snr1.6791191182K. Jirousek2.10119119113LSep 28 · 20:13S. Kalensky1.5771112113J. Snr2.251181081LSep 28 · 19:15J. Snr2.20481161S. Kalensky1.6111116113WSep 28 · 18:15J. Snr2.501311612113T. Bertho1.50158111092WSep 28 · 17:15J. Snr1.91511511123F. Kubos1.80115116102
M. Drabek10
WOct 8 · 20:00M. Drabek2.63111212113P. Maly1.445141061WOct 8 · 18:30J. Marhol1.40111211792M. Drabek2.759101311113WSep 30 · 20:29M. Drabek1.91119118113F. Schmidtmayer1.8081191182LSep 30 · 20:00M. Drabek1.913119141M. Vana1.8011611163LSep 30 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83541111133M. Drabek1.83111183112WSep 30 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.449880M. Drabek2.631111113LSep 24 · 21:03M. Drabek2.504119101J. Marhol1.5011911123WSep 24 · 20:00M. Drabek2.10781111113M. Vana1.6711114652LSep 24 · 18:30M. Barton1.6771111113M. Drabek2.10117981WSep 24 · 18:00J. Marhol1.448111011102M. Drabek2.63116126123
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