TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jaroslav Puk vs Marcel Cmil 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210119––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Jaroslav Puk at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 2–1 Marcel Cmil Marcel Cmil has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2854.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Puk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Puk 1352 vs Cmil 1373
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Puk 40% vs Cmil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Puk 40% vs Cmil 70%
Cmil
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Puk +1 · Cmil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Puk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Puk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 1.666 / Cmil 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Puk)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260971
Puk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 19 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Cmil2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 57 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back31% 19 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePuk2wins
AwayCmil1wins
Puk leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk2Cmil1n = 3Puk took 2 of 3
S2Puk3Cmil0n = 3Puk took 3 of 3
S3Puk1Cmil2n = 3Cmil took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPukCmilP − CBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.031.7+5.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 319 vs 359 / 66247%54.2%150 / 319 vs 359 / 662Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PukPuk 1.67/Cmil 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Puk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 8 · 06:30J. Puk341112113M. Cmil2891090
LJul 31 · 08:53J. Puk34511991M. Cmil4211911113
WJul 31 · 07:30J. Puk43111110113M. Cmil25321281
J. Puk10
LOct 8 · 07:30J. Puk1.5771080F. Fryml2.251112113WOct 8 · 05:30J. Puk1.7311119133J. Jnr2.006911111LOct 7 · 13:05J. Puk2.50115971M. Vorel1.5051111113LOct 7 · 12:00M. Vorel1.8081111113J. Puk1.91116781WOct 7 · 11:00J. Marhol1.5331111872J. Puk2.38119711113LOct 7 · 09:30M. Melisek1.5041111113J. Puk2.50116761WOct 1 · 12:28J. Jnr1.911110117132J. Puk1.80612811153LOct 1 · 11:30J. Puk2.505670M. Melisek1.501111113WOct 1 · 10:30J. Puk2.3881111113A. Dvoracek1.53116731LOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113
M. Cmil10
WOct 8 · 06:00F. Fryml1.67114771M. Cmil2.1071111113LOct 7 · 16:44M. Cmil2.00411120F. Fryml1.731113143LOct 7 · 16:00M. Cmil1.4411716872A. Akopyan2.639111411113WOct 7 · 14:30F. Fryml1.804101291M. Cmil1.91111210113LOct 7 · 14:00M. Holub1.801111113M. Cmil1.915770WOct 5 · 21:03M. Cmil1.3011117153J. Mares3.403911131WOct 5 · 20:00V. Coubal2.25911591M. Cmil1.5711811113WOct 5 · 19:00J. Mares3.409811111M. Cmil1.3011117133WOct 5 · 17:30M. Vydra2.20811841M. Cmil1.6111911113WOct 4 · 16:36M. Cmil1.651181111123M. Holub2.10511139102
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