TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jaroslav Puk vs Jakub Dufek Jnr 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161199111311––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 81 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Jaroslav Puk at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 2–2 Jakub Dufek Jnr Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2154.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Puk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Puk 1341 vs Jnr 1325
Puk
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Puk 40% vs Jnr 80%
Jnr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Puk 30% vs Jnr 70%
Jnr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Puk -2 · Jnr +3
Jnr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Puk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 1.727 / Jnr 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Puk)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260965
Puk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 19 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Jnr2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 87 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back29% 25 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePuk2wins
AwayJnr2wins
4 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 4 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
S2Puk3Jnr1n = 4Puk took 3 of 4
S3Puk1Jnr3n = 4Jnr took 3 of 4
S4Puk2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
S5Puk2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPukJnrP − JBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match45.247.0−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 316 vs 252 / 49746.8%50.7%148 / 316 vs 252 / 497Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PukPuk 1.73/Jnr 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Puk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 1 · 12:28J. Puk52612811153J. Jnr521110117132
LOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk4114116372J. Jnr511261111113
LAug 21 · 08:33J. Puk4491111942J. Jnr45116611113
WAug 21 · 07:30J. Puk44116511113J. Jnr4061111752
J. Puk10
WOct 8 · 06:30J. Puk1.671112113M. Cmil2.1091090LOct 7 · 13:05J. Puk2.50115971M. Vorel1.5051111113LOct 7 · 12:00M. Vorel1.8081111113J. Puk1.91116781WOct 7 · 11:00J. Marhol1.5331111872J. Puk2.38119711113LOct 7 · 09:30M. Melisek1.5041111113J. Puk2.50116761WOct 1 · 12:28J. Jnr1.911110117132J. Puk1.80612811153LOct 1 · 11:30J. Puk2.505670M. Melisek1.501111113WOct 1 · 10:30J. Puk2.3881111113A. Dvoracek1.53116731LOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113LSep 29 · 08:53J. Puk1.80117831M. Vorel1.9161111113
J. Jnr10
WOct 6 · 09:09J. Jnr3.0011711113D. Sabuka1.36611561WOct 6 · 08:00J. Jnr2.38911712113J. Krejcik1.53117111032WOct 6 · 06:30P. Moulis1.679770J. Jnr2.101111113LOct 6 · 06:00D. Sabuka1.531111133J. Jnr2.3826110WOct 5 · 13:05P. Moulis1.5391116482J. Jnr2.381161411113WOct 5 · 11:30M. Holub2.0061111692J. Jnr1.73119811113LOct 5 · 11:00J. Jnr2.25159461P. Moulis1.57131111113WOct 5 · 10:00J. Jnr1.4061111113P. Muller2.75114871LOct 1 · 12:28J. Jnr1.911110117132J. Puk1.80612811153WOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113
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