TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Dufek Jnr vs Julius Krejcik 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111177111210113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:56 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeJulius Krejcik to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Julius Krejcik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 92 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Julius Krejcik at 62.4%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 1–6 Julius Krejcik Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5662.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krejcik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Krejcik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1298 vs Krejcik 1346
Krejcik
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Krejcik 40%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 60% vs Krejcik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +1 · Krejcik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Krejcik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejcik form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.375 / Krejcik 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Krejcik)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250768
Jnr2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 84 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back29% 24 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Krejcik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 24 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJnr1wins
AwayKrejcik6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKrejcik leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnrn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKrejcik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr1Krejcik6n = 7Krejcik took 6 of 7
S2Jnr3Krejcik4n = 7Krejcik took 4 of 7
S3Jnr4Krejcik3n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S4Jnr2Krejcik4n = 6Krejcik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricJnrKrejcikJ − KBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match36.742.1−5.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrKrejcikBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 495 vs 30 / 5250.5%57.7%250 / 495 vs 30 / 52Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrejcikJnr 2.38/Krejcik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Krejcik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 3 · 10:00J. Jnr44531112132J. Krejcik511111410153
LAug 28 · 12:28J. Jnr35711981J. Krejcik3811511113
LAug 28 · 10:30J. Jnr53911118142J. Krejcik55119811163
LJul 17 · 10:30J. Jnr2981290J. Krejcik361114113
WJul 15 · 13:08J. Jnr43101111113J. Krejcik33127951
LJul 15 · 10:30J. Jnr30114961J. Krejcik4181111113
LJun 24 · 10:15J. Jnr23541131J. Krejcik4111118113
J. Jnr10
WOct 6 · 09:09J. Jnr3.0011711113D. Sabuka1.36611561WOct 6 · 06:30P. Moulis1.679770J. Jnr2.101111113LOct 6 · 06:00D. Sabuka1.531111133J. Jnr2.3826110WOct 5 · 13:05P. Moulis1.5391116482J. Jnr2.381161411113WOct 5 · 11:30M. Holub2.0061111692J. Jnr1.73119811113LOct 5 · 11:00J. Jnr2.25159461P. Moulis1.57131111113WOct 5 · 10:00J. Jnr1.4061111113P. Muller2.75114871WOct 3 · 20:28J. Jnr1.731114113M. Holub2.0051280LOct 3 · 20:00P. Moulis1.6711611123J. Jnr2.104114101LOct 3 · 19:00D. Sabuka1.50111145113J. Jnr2.5029111172
J. Krejcik10
WOct 6 · 08:38J. Krejcik2.2511511113P. Moulis1.57711881WOct 6 · 07:00D. Sabuka1.80912781J. Krejcik1.91111011113LOct 6 · 05:30P. Moulis1.6711119113J. Krejcik2.10431171WSep 29 · 08:44J. Krejcik1.531111113P. Muller2.386990LSep 29 · 08:00J. Vrnak2.1015115113J. Krejcik1.671381191LSep 29 · 07:00P. Muller3.2512119113J. Krejcik1.331081181WSep 29 · 05:30A. Akopyan2.389660J. Krejcik1.531111113LSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113LSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 11:00J. Krejcik2.001111113J. Seeman1.733940
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