TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Kapik vs Mateusz Rutkowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1181012811911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
1181012811911––
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 87–94 Mateusz Rutkowski Krzysztof Kapik has won 87 of their 181 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kapik beat Rutkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4454.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 3.1pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
87-94 in 181
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 7 in 181, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1699 vs Rutkowski 1641
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Rutkowski 20%
Kapik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 60% vs Rutkowski 30%
Kapik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -3 · Rutkowski -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.95 / Rutkowski 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rutkowski)-3.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13259476
Kapik1.95
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 165 of 383
Down 0–1, comes back22% 46 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 91
Rutkowski1.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 348 of 493
Up 2–0, closes it98% 171 of 175
Up 1–0, closes it90% 272 of 304
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik5wins
AwayRutkowski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik83.3%5 of 6
AwayRutkowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik6Rutkowski4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S2Kapik6Rutkowski4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S3Kapik9Rutkowski1n = 10Kapik took 9 of 10
S4Kapik3Rutkowski3n = 6split evenly
S5Kapik0Rutkowski4n = 4Rutkowski took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikRutkowskiK − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.933.7+7.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1116 / 2101 vs 837 / 150053.1%55.8%1116 / 2101 vs 837 / 1500Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiKapik 1.95/Rutkowski 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 14:15K. Kapik331111113M. Rutkowski92700
WOct 2 · 10:55K. Kapik341112113M. Rutkowski1871010
LOct 2 · 06:00K. Kapik49118111182M. Rutkowski47131157113
LSep 28 · 13:50K. Kapik49512121282M. Rutkowski5611101014113
WSep 28 · 08:30K. Kapik341111123M. Rutkowski2367100
LSep 24 · 09:45K. Kapik5411101110122M. Rutkowski48712312143
LSep 21 · 13:50K. Kapik34861191M. Rutkowski4211119113
WSep 21 · 08:30K. Kapik4111118113M. Rutkowski27651151
WSep 17 · 10:05K. Kapik331111113M. Rutkowski174760
LSep 16 · 09:45K. Kapik4889141162M. Rutkowski501111125113
K. Kapik10
LOct 7 · 12:35K. Kapik1.8071113942D. Kosmal1.911191111113LOct 7 · 11:20K. Kapik1.705730G. Poliniewicz2.051111113LOct 7 · 10:05J. Stecyszyn1.5711811113K. Kapik2.20611931WOct 7 · 09:20K. Kapik1.6011101112163K. Wloczko2.20712714142WOct 7 · 08:30K. Kapik1.85914811113M. Rutkowski1.85111211472LOct 7 · 06:50K. Kapik2.551124592K. Wloczko1.45611111113WOct 7 · 05:35K. Kapik2.051211712113J. Kuzmicz1.65107111492WOct 7 · 04:00K. Kapik1.33111197113J. Zochniak3.1074111182WOct 7 · 03:00K. Kapik1.841111811113D. Kosmal1.8741311682WOct 6 · 14:15M. Rutkowski2.002700K. Kapik1.731111113
M. Rutkowski10
LOct 7 · 13:00J. Stecyszyn1.461211113M. Rutkowski2.5010750LOct 7 · 12:10M. Rutkowski3.059450K. Wloczko1.301111113LOct 7 · 10:30M. Rutkowski1.8010131111112G. Poliniewicz1.911211139133LOct 7 · 09:45D. Kosmal1.90111211123M. Rutkowski1.754148101LOct 7 · 08:30K. Kapik1.85914811113M. Rutkowski1.85111211472WOct 7 · 07:15M. Rutkowski1.821111113D. Kosmal1.889730LOct 7 · 06:00K. Wloczko1.30148119113M. Rutkowski3.15121161182LOct 7 · 04:50J. Kuzmicz1.75114146113M. Rutkowski1.97711121182WOct 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.4681012121M. Rutkowski1.42111210143LOct 6 · 14:15M. Rutkowski2.002700K. Kapik1.731111113
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