TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Rutkowski vs Dawid Kosmal 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117113––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Mateusz Rutkowski @ 1.80 · Won
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
119117113––––
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 5–6 Dawid Kosmal Mateusz Rutkowski has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 05:4354.0%Our read54.9%to break even at 1.82
short by 0.9pp54.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.82 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1664 vs Kosmal 1644
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 40% vs Kosmal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kosmal 40%
Rutkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -2 · Kosmal -3
Kosmal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosmal form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.82 / Kosmal 1.88
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rutkowski)-0.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13255109
Rutkowski1.82
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 348 of 493
Up 2–0, closes it98% 171 of 175
Up 1–0, closes it90% 272 of 304
Kosmal1.88
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 71 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski4wins
AwayKosmal6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKosmal leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayKosmal71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski3Kosmal7n = 10Kosmal took 7 of 10
S2Rutkowski4Kosmal6n = 10Kosmal took 6 of 10
S3Rutkowski7Kosmal3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S4Rutkowski6Kosmal3n = 9Rutkowski took 6 of 9
S5Rutkowski0Kosmal3n = 3Kosmal took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKosmalR − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.442.3−0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKosmalBasisWin rate · lifetime836 / 1495 vs 365 / 67955.9%53.8%836 / 1495 vs 365 / 679Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.82/Kosmal 1.88
Hit
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Mateusz Rutkowski @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
3–0
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 10:55M. Rutkowski2612950D. Kosmal361411113
LOct 2 · 14:35M. Rutkowski40816791D. Kosmal47111411113
WSep 16 · 14:15M. Rutkowski46101311123D. Kosmal4112118101
LAug 2 · 22:50M. Rutkowski31581171D. Kosmal4011117113
WAug 2 · 16:30M. Rutkowski4114511113D. Kosmal371211591
LJun 9 · 19:25M. Rutkowski5811121211122D. Kosmal609141013143
LJun 8 · 19:25M. Rutkowski4151151192D. Kosmal46118115113
LApr 21 · 17:50M. Rutkowski4687111192D. Kosmal50111189113
WMar 11 · 20:00M. Rutkowski4511815113D. Kosmal353111381
WFeb 6 · 17:40M. Rutkowski4071111113D. Kosmal31119831
M. Rutkowski10
LOct 7 · 08:30K. Kapik1.85914811113M. Rutkowski1.85111211472LOct 7 · 06:00K. Wloczko1.30148119113M. Rutkowski3.15121161182LOct 7 · 04:50J. Kuzmicz1.75114146113M. Rutkowski1.97711121182WOct 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.4681012121M. Rutkowski1.42111210143LOct 6 · 14:15M. Rutkowski2.002700K. Kapik1.731111113WOct 6 · 12:35M. Olbrycht1.9011871172M. Rutkowski1.80611113113WOct 6 · 11:45J. Kuzmicz1.60551231M. Rutkowski2.10111110113LOct 6 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.8012950D. Kosmal1.861411113WOct 6 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.85111358113M. Malachowski1.85711111192WOct 5 · 14:15M. Rutkowski1.9012114113D. Kostal1.801081191
D. Kosmal10
LOct 7 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz1.321111113D. Kosmal3.103790LOct 7 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.95111011113D. Kosmal1.70912941LOct 7 · 04:25K. Wloczko1.47111111113D. Kosmal2.45613871LOct 7 · 03:00K. Kapik1.841111811113D. Kosmal1.8741311682WOct 6 · 19:40M. Minda2.75761131D. Kosmal1.4011117113WOct 6 · 18:50A. Linek3.2548111142D. Kosmal1.33111168113LOct 6 · 18:05D. Kosmal1.613111110102A. Gromek2.20118612123WOct 6 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4411711113P. Blocho2.63911741WOct 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.0011119111D. Kosmal1.7371311133WOct 6 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.8012950D. Kosmal1.861411113
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