TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Kosmal vs Artur Gromek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
31111811610121012
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:56 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDawid Kosmal to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Kosmal above · Artur Gromek below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Dawid Kosmal at 57.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Kosmal 1–2 Artur Gromek Dawid Kosmal has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5657.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kosmal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosmal 1686 vs Gromek 1512
Kosmal
Wrong
both rated, 174 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosmal 40% vs Gromek 60%
Gromek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosmal 60% vs Gromek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosmal +2 · Gromek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kosmal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gromek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosmal 1.615 / Gromek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kosmal)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13249712
Kosmal1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 170 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it96% 91 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it85% 136 of 161
Gromek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog25% won 23 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKosmal1wins
AwayGromek2wins
3 of 3 to a deciderGromek leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosmal2Gromek1n = 3Kosmal took 2 of 3
S2Kosmal1Gromek2n = 3Gromek took 2 of 3
S3Kosmal3Gromek0n = 3Kosmal took 3 of 3
S4Kosmal0Gromek3n = 3Gromek took 3 of 3
S5Kosmal1Gromek2n = 3Gromek took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKosmalGromekK − GBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match44.344.30.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosmalGromekBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 673 vs 59 / 16853.9%35.1%363 / 673 vs 59 / 168Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KosmalKosmal 1.61/Gromek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kosmal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gromek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJun 24 · 14:20D. Kosmal43115115113A. Gromek4051161172
LJun 23 · 07:40D. Kosmal4681111792A. Gromek45114811113
LJun 23 · 05:15D. Kosmal4411911672A. Gromek48811711113
D. Kosmal10
WOct 6 · 18:50A. Linek3.2548111142D. Kosmal1.33111168113WOct 6 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4411711113P. Blocho2.63911741WOct 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.0011119111D. Kosmal1.7371311133LOct 6 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz1.3771311113D. Kosmal2.751111591LOct 6 · 13:25D. Kosmal2.001195101K. Kapik1.7081111123LOct 6 · 12:10M. Malachowski1.621111123D. Kosmal2.1597100WOct 6 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.8012950D. Kosmal1.861411113LOct 6 · 09:20M. Olbrycht1.801011811113D. Kosmal1.8512711722WOct 2 · 21:00D. Kosmal1.331111123M. Makajew3.2578100WOct 2 · 19:40D. Kosmal1.5711611113M. Kukawka2.25711751
A. Gromek10
LOct 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.5381111143A. Gromek2.381178121WOct 6 · 15:25M. Minda2.105790A. Gromek1.671111113LOct 6 · 00:35K. Staszczyk1.30111168163A. Gromek3.40471111142WOct 5 · 22:55J. Glanowski2.10111137102A. Gromek1.67861111123WOct 5 · 22:10M. Trela2.638640A. Gromek1.441111113LOct 5 · 21:25A. Linek2.25811116113A. Gromek1.5711781182WOct 5 · 20:05A. Gromek1.671111113J. Glanowski2.109890LOct 5 · 18:30R. Stapor1.8011118113A. Gromek1.91991191WOct 5 · 17:40K. Rudomina2.001181091A. Gromek1.7341112113WOct 5 · 16:55A. Gromek1.801214113A. Linek1.91101260
Upcoming Matches
D. Kosmal
Oct 6 · 19:40D. Kosmal1.40M. Minda2.75—Oct 7 · 03:00D. Kosmal—K. Kapik——Oct 7 · 04:25D. Kosmal—K. Wloczko——Oct 7 · 05:15D. Kosmal—J. Zochniak——Oct 7 · 07:15D. Kosmal—M. Rutkowski——Oct 7 · 08:05D. Kosmal—J. Kuzmicz——Oct 7 · 09:45D. Kosmal—M. Rutkowski——Oct 7 · 10:55D. Kosmal—K. Wloczko——Oct 7 · 11:45D. Kosmal—J. Stecyszyn——Oct 7 · 12:35D. Kosmal—K. Kapik——
A. Gromek
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