TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Kapik vs Dawid Kosmal 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141113811116118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:56 and never touched: 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1141113811116118
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 10–11 Dawid Kosmal Krzysztof Kapik has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 14h before this match
Kapik beat Kosmal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5654.8%Our read54.3%to break even at 1.84
clears by 0.5pp54.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.84 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.84 (50%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1688 vs Kosmal 1680
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 60% vs Kosmal 80%
Kosmal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 50% vs Kosmal 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +3 · Kosmal +2
Kapik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosmal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.84 / Kosmal 1.87
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kapik)+0.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13254924
Kapik1.84
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 218 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it96% 105 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it77% 148 of 192
Kosmal1.87
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 70 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik4wins
AwayKosmal6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKosmal leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik66.7%2 of 3
AwayKosmal71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik3Kosmal7n = 10Kosmal took 7 of 10
S2Kapik4Kosmal6n = 10Kosmal took 6 of 10
S3Kapik4Kosmal6n = 10Kosmal took 6 of 10
S4Kapik3Kosmal3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikKosmalKapik − KosmalBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.134.7−2.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikKosmalBasisWin rate · lifetime1111 / 2092 vs 365 / 67653.1%54%1111 / 2092 vs 365 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.84/Kosmal 1.87
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 13:25K. Kapik4281111123D. Kosmal351195101
LOct 2 · 11:45K. Kapik2171040D. Kosmal341112113
LSep 25 · 13:00K. Kapik3651011101D. Kosmal3911124123
WSep 25 · 04:50K. Kapik4111118113D. Kosmal34861191
LSep 17 · 06:50K. Kapik361081171D. Kosmal3712113113
WSep 16 · 10:30K. Kapik331111113D. Kosmal189630
WSep 16 · 03:20K. Kapik49711911113D. Kosmal4211511692
LAug 31 · 09:00K. Kapik29115671D. Kosmal4291111113
LAug 28 · 14:35K. Kapik204970D. Kosmal331111113
LJun 9 · 16:40K. Kapik145810D. Kosmal331111113
K. Kapik10
WOct 7 · 04:00K. Kapik1.33111197113J. Zochniak3.1074111182WOct 6 · 14:15M. Rutkowski2.002700K. Kapik1.731111113WOct 6 · 13:25D. Kosmal2.001195101K. Kapik1.7081111123WOct 6 · 11:20M. Olbrycht1.74581131K. Kapik1.9911117113LOct 6 · 10:30M. Malachowski1.8091111113K. Kapik1.85115761LOct 6 · 09:00J. Kuzmicz1.5091111113K. Kapik2.40116691WOct 5 · 08:05M. Malachowski1.808511101K. Kapik1.8511117123LOct 5 · 07:15M. Sklensky1.301111123K. Kapik3.2076100WOct 5 · 05:15D. Kostal2.0095111182K. Kapik1.70111179113LOct 5 · 04:25M. Olbrycht1.811212123K. Kapik1.901010100
D. Kosmal10
LOct 7 · 04:25K. Wloczko1.47111111113D. Kosmal2.45613871WOct 6 · 19:40M. Minda2.75761131D. Kosmal1.4011117113WOct 6 · 18:50A. Linek3.2548111142D. Kosmal1.33111168113LOct 6 · 18:05D. Kosmal1.613111110102A. Gromek2.20118612123WOct 6 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4411711113P. Blocho2.63911741WOct 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.0011119111D. Kosmal1.7371311133LOct 6 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz1.3771311113D. Kosmal2.751111591LOct 6 · 13:25D. Kosmal2.001195101K. Kapik1.7081111123LOct 6 · 12:10M. Malachowski1.621111123D. Kosmal2.1597100WOct 6 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.8012950D. Kosmal1.861411113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik
D. Kosmal
Oct 7 · 05:15D. Kosmal1.60J. Zochniak2.06—Oct 7 · 07:15D. Kosmal1.86M. Rutkowski1.80—Oct 7 · 08:05D. Kosmal—J. Kuzmicz——Oct 7 · 09:45D. Kosmal—M. Rutkowski——Oct 7 · 10:55D. Kosmal—K. Wloczko——Oct 7 · 11:45D. Kosmal—J. Stecyszyn——Oct 7 · 12:35D. Kosmal—K. Kapik——Oct 7 · 14:15D. Kosmal—G. Poliniewicz——
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