TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Kapik vs Jakub Kuzmicz 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12101177111214119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:30 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
104 points played in total.
Set by set
12101177111214119
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 28–40 Jakub Kuzmicz Krzysztof Kapik has won 28 of their 68 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 21h before this match
Kuzmicz beat Kapik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3062.9%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
clears by 2.3pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Kuzmicz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-40 in 68
Kuzmicz
Wrong
gap of 12 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1706 vs Kuzmicz 1770
Kuzmicz
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 100% vs Kuzmicz 40%
Kapik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 70% vs Kuzmicz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +5 · Kuzmicz +1
Kapik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kuzmicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 2.05 / Kuzmicz 1.65
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+2.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13257464
Kapik2.05
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 165 of 383
Down 0–1, comes back22% 46 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 91
Kuzmicz1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 395 of 637
Up 2–0, closes it98% 166 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it81% 276 of 339
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik3wins
AwayKuzmicz7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik33.3%1 of 3
AwayKuzmicz71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S2Kapik5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kapik2Kuzmicz8n = 10Kuzmicz took 8 of 10
S4Kapik4Kuzmicz4n = 8split evenly
S5Kapik2Kuzmicz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikKuzmiczKapik − KuzmiczBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.441.4−3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime1113 / 2094 vs 746 / 130353.2%57.3%1113 / 2094 vs 746 / 1303Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczKapik 2.05/Kuzmicz 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 03:20K. Kapik35148581J. Kuzmicz45121111113
LSep 17 · 05:35K. Kapik2610790J. Kuzmicz341211113
LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik388911101J. Kuzmicz3911115123
LAug 26 · 16:05K. Kapik35711981J. Kuzmicz4111811113
LAug 23 · 15:45K. Kapik511111101182J. Kuzmicz52137129113
WAug 14 · 22:30K. Kapik43511511113J. Kuzmicz4311611782
WAug 14 · 18:05K. Kapik3811115113J. Kuzmicz33941191
LAug 13 · 22:35K. Kapik2476110J. Kuzmicz351111133
LAug 12 · 15:45K. Kapik4012771132J. Kuzmicz471011114113
WJul 29 · 15:45K. Kapik54914119113J. Kuzmicz45111241172
K. Kapik10
WOct 7 · 04:00K. Kapik1.33111197113J. Zochniak3.1074111182WOct 7 · 03:00K. Kapik1.841111811113D. Kosmal1.8741311682WOct 6 · 14:15M. Rutkowski2.002700K. Kapik1.731111113WOct 6 · 13:25D. Kosmal2.001195101K. Kapik1.7081111123WOct 6 · 11:20M. Olbrycht1.74581131K. Kapik1.9911117113LOct 6 · 10:30M. Malachowski1.8091111113K. Kapik1.85115761LOct 6 · 09:00J. Kuzmicz1.5091111113K. Kapik2.40116691WOct 5 · 08:05M. Malachowski1.808511101K. Kapik1.8511117123LOct 5 · 07:15M. Sklensky1.301111123K. Kapik3.2076100WOct 5 · 05:15D. Kostal2.0095111182K. Kapik1.70111179113
J. Kuzmicz10
LOct 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak2.17111356123J. Kuzmicz1.628111111102WOct 7 · 04:50J. Kuzmicz1.75114146113M. Rutkowski1.97711121182LOct 7 · 03:40J. Kuzmicz2.056860K. Wloczko1.681111113WOct 6 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz1.3771311113D. Kosmal2.751111591LOct 6 · 13:00J. Kuzmicz1.70126671M. Malachowski2.05101111113LOct 6 · 11:45J. Kuzmicz1.60551231M. Rutkowski2.10111110113LOct 6 · 10:05J. Kuzmicz1.78911101192M. Olbrycht1.94117127113WOct 6 · 09:00J. Kuzmicz1.5091111113K. Kapik2.40116691WOct 6 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz1.81712128123G. Poliniewicz1.9011101011102WOct 6 · 06:25K. Wloczko1.70891171J. Kuzmicz1.9511116113
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