TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Chmelicek vs David Hons 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91112108111012––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 83 set 4, 10-12 · our read held David Hons at 62.4%
83 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 7–11 David Hons Martin Chmelicek has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:2062.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Hons
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1397 vs Hons 1486
Hons
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 40% vs Hons 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 30% vs Hons 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -2 · Hons +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Hons) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.375 / Hons 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Hons)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13258202
Chmelicek2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 74 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 70
Hons1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 60 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayHons7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek50%2 of 4
AwayHons83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek2Hons8n = 10Hons took 8 of 10
S3Chmelicek5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S4Chmelicek3Hons2n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
S5Chmelicek1Hons2n = 3Hons took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekHonsC − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.437.9−4.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 571 vs 274 / 54746.8%50.1%267 / 571 vs 274 / 547Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HonsChmelicek 2.38/Hons 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 15:35M. Chmelicek341111123D. Hons2899100
LSep 19 · 18:35M. Chmelicek4394111182D. Hons49111188113
LSep 18 · 14:35M. Chmelicek32810140D. Hons391112163
LSep 16 · 12:35M. Chmelicek28711281D. Hons43111110113
LSep 12 · 20:35M. Chmelicek249690D. Hons331111113
WAug 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek47681111113D. Hons3911116652
LJul 18 · 18:05M. Chmelicek198830D. Hons331111113
LJul 18 · 10:05M. Chmelicek291121151D. Hons3941113113
LJun 30 · 15:35M. Chmelicek45116121152D. Hons50811146113
WJun 21 · 18:35M. Chmelicek331111113D. Hons268990
M. Chmelicek10
LOct 7 · 21:05J. Martin—91111113M. Chmelicek—117151LOct 7 · 20:35J. Martin1.531111113M. Chmelicek2.384380LOct 7 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.5011117113M. Chmelicek2.50371141LOct 4 · 17:33J. Lovl1.40311911113M. Chmelicek2.7511711562WOct 4 · 16:35M. Flesar1.535780M. Chmelicek2.381111113LOct 4 · 15:35M. Chmelicek1.8011210101J. Lovl1.9171112123WOct 4 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.44691191M. Chmelicek2.6311117113WOct 4 · 09:09S. Mezlik2.20511871M. Chmelicek1.6111711113LOct 4 · 08:35M. Chmelicek1.3651111692S. Mezlik3.00119211113LOct 4 · 07:05R. Vavricka1.7321111113M. Chmelicek2.00118951
D. Hons10
LOct 7 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.9113111111113D. Hons1.8015413782WOct 7 · 18:35D. Hons1.8311116113J. Martin1.83951191WOct 5 · 21:05M. Flesar2.0067111362D. Hons1.731111511113LOct 5 · 20:35D. Hons1.809111191J. Martin1.9111613113LOct 5 · 19:05S. Kafka1.831111113D. Hons1.836980LOct 5 · 18:35M. Flesar2.10612119113D. Hons1.67111041172LOct 1 · 21:08M. Flesar2.20111157113D. Hons1.6167111152LOct 1 · 20:05M. Flesar2.2512711113D. Hons1.571011751LOct 1 · 19:35L. Vosyka2.00117911113D. Hons1.7381111632LOct 1 · 18:35D. Hons1.83119101192T. Motacek1.83811127113
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