TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Adamus vs Jakub Nowak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113711116811117
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:30 and never touched: 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
113711116811117
H2H Pawel Adamus 24–15 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 15 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3070.9%Our read75.2%to break even at 1.33
short by 4.3pp75.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.33 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (70%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-15 in 39
Adamus
Correct
gap of 9 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1291 vs Nowak 1192
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 20% vs Nowak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -2 · Nowak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.33 / Nowak 3.10
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Adamus)-4.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13257896
Adamus1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 221 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it97% 106 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it78% 166 of 212
Nowak3.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 244 of 671
Down 0–1, comes back21% 85 of 402
Down 0–2, comes back8% 20 of 242
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus7wins
AwayNowak3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus85.7%6 of 7
AwayNowak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus7Nowak3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S2Adamus6Nowak4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus7Nowak3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S4Adamus4Nowak4n = 8split evenly
S5Adamus2Nowak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusNowakA − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.339.8+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 741 vs 666 / 175454.5%38%404 / 741 vs 666 / 1754Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.33/Nowak 3.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 07:35P. Adamus48117118113J. Nowak3831161172
LOct 7 · 01:35P. Adamus4911781582J. Nowak526111113113
WSep 25 · 06:25P. Adamus341111123J. Nowak2578100
LSep 25 · 02:45P. Adamus43101111111J. Nowak4312513133
WSep 18 · 04:10P. Adamus43111011113J. Nowak36912781
WSep 9 · 01:25P. Adamus591111129163J. Nowak521341011142
WSep 8 · 19:20P. Adamus4211119113J. Nowak37981191
WSep 7 · 00:00P. Adamus4312911113J. Nowak371011971
WAug 4 · 21:20P. Adamus391117113J. Nowak3391590
LAug 2 · 14:20P. Adamus43611115102J. Nowak45114711123
P. Adamus10
LOct 7 · 06:25A. Burkacki2.371111133P. Adamus1.5239110LOct 7 · 05:10M. Adamus1.961111113P. Adamus1.767870WOct 7 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.94126371P. Adamus1.68101111113WOct 7 · 02:45A. Burkacki2.506117141P. Adamus1.4411511163LOct 7 · 01:35P. Adamus1.3511781582J. Nowak2.706111113113LOct 7 · 00:25G. Jurowicz2.40891211123P. Adamus1.501111107102LOct 6 · 23:10M. Adamus2.251610912113P. Adamus1.541412111082LOct 6 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.461112133P. Adamus2.50610110LOct 2 · 13:55O. Jadach1.8071111113P. Adamus1.91119971LOct 2 · 13:05M. Cesarz3.4011117113P. Adamus1.30841141
J. Nowak10
LOct 7 · 05:35R. Idaczyk1.551113153J. Nowak2.30711130LOct 7 · 04:50A. Burkacki1.9991112113J. Nowak1.741181081WOct 7 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek1.70121150J. Nowak2.001413113LOct 7 · 02:20M. Adamus1.581311113J. Nowak2.2011590WOct 7 · 01:35P. Adamus1.3511781582J. Nowak2.706111113113LOct 6 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.181111113J. Nowak4.156940LOct 6 · 22:50G. Jurowicz1.73411118113J. Nowak1.9811771152LOct 6 · 21:10A. Burkacki1.781311113J. Nowak1.9311750LOct 5 · 04:20J. Nowak2.9510750P. Kurek1.361211113LOct 5 · 03:05J. Nowak2.1868111162K. Kowalski1.62111199113
Upcoming Matches
P. Adamus
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J. Nowak
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