TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kaczmarek vs Jakub Nowak 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
12141113511––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:04 and never touched: 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Kaczmarek to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
12141113511––––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 38–40 Jakub Nowak Jakub Kaczmarek has won 38 of their 78 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:0457.5%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 1.3pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Kaczmarek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-40 in 78
Nowak
Correct
gap of 2 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1266 vs Nowak 1224
Kaczmarek
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 20% vs Nowak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 30% vs Nowak 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -1 · Nowak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kaczmarek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 1.70 / Nowak 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 43%
Edge (Kaczmarek)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13254115
Kaczmarek1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 77 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it82% 65 of 79
Nowak2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 244 of 675
Down 0–1, comes back21% 85 of 406
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 244
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek5wins
AwayNowak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek83.3%5 of 6
AwayNowak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek6Nowak4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S2Kaczmarek4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Kaczmarek4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Kaczmarek2Nowak3n = 5Nowak took 3 of 5
S5Kaczmarek2Nowak1n = 3Kaczmarek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekNowakK − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.339.9−0.6per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime510 / 1359 vs 666 / 175237.5%38%510 / 1359 vs 666 / 1752Avg sets wonper match1.61.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaczmarekKaczmarek 1.70/Nowak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.5%
Kaczmarek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek28121150J. Nowak381413113
LOct 1 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek268990J. Nowak331111113
WOct 1 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek511112116113J. Nowak4751481192
LSep 25 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek2394100J. Nowak341111123
WSep 24 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek6011121313113J. Nowak55714151182
WSep 15 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek47131111123J. Nowak4211813101
LAug 26 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek31124871J. Nowak43101111113
WAug 12 · 03:35J. Kaczmarek351111133J. Nowak2449110
LAug 4 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek551013119122J. Nowak531211511143
WJul 17 · 02:45J. Kaczmarek371111153J. Nowak3098130
J. Kaczmarek10
WOct 7 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.50116119123R. Idaczyk1.45611911102LOct 6 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.5511101011102M. Cesarz2.32912123123WOct 6 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.03417115143A. Ruszkiewicz1.711115811122LOct 6 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.00111112932O. Vincenec1.70771411113LOct 6 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.858980R. Skotniczny1.351111113LOct 6 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.40781151R. Idaczyk1.4711118113LOct 5 · 17:05J. Pelka1.821211113J. Kaczmarek1.8810970WOct 5 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek1.3611139143P. Polok2.9181111121WOct 5 · 14:45G. Wichowski2.751168121J. Kaczmarek1.4091111143LOct 5 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.4091115113J. Kaczmarek2.751181371
J. Nowak10
LOct 7 · 02:20M. Adamus1.581311113J. Nowak2.2011590WOct 7 · 01:35P. Adamus1.3511781582J. Nowak2.706111113113LOct 6 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.181111113J. Nowak4.156940LOct 6 · 22:50G. Jurowicz1.73411118113J. Nowak1.9811771152LOct 6 · 21:10A. Burkacki1.781311113J. Nowak1.9311750LOct 5 · 04:20J. Nowak2.9510750P. Kurek1.361211113LOct 5 · 03:05J. Nowak2.1868111162K. Kowalski1.62111199113LOct 5 · 01:55J. Nowak2.857850W. Urban1.351111113LOct 5 · 00:45D. Dytko1.551111113J. Nowak2.258570WOct 4 · 23:55J. Nowak2.801217113P. Gumulinski1.37101590
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