TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Adamus vs Pawel Adamus 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118117––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:58 and never touched: 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
117118117––––
H2H Mariusz Adamus 9–13 Pawel Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Adamus beat Adamus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5859.1%Our read56.8%to break even at 1.76
clears by 2.3pp56.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.76 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (53%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-13 in 22
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1393 vs Adamus 1299
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 100% vs Adamus 40%
Adamus
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 90% vs Adamus 20%
Adamus
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +7 · Adamus +2
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.96 / Adamus 1.76
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Adamus)+2.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13257396
Adamus1.96
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 182 of 431
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 229
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 129
Adamus1.76
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 221 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it97% 106 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it78% 166 of 212
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus75%3 of 4
AwayAdamus83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Adamus4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Adamus5Adamus2n = 7Adamus took 5 of 7
S5Adamus1Adamus2n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusAdamusAdamus − AdamusBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.842.1−1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime792 / 1625 vs 403 / 73948.7%54.5%792 / 1625 vs 403 / 739Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.96/Adamus 1.76
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.1%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 05:10M. Adamus331111113P. Adamus227870
WOct 6 · 23:10M. Adamus581610912113P. Adamus551412111082
LSep 29 · 22:25M. Adamus397912111P. Adamus45111110133
LAug 22 · 07:10M. Adamus229490P. Adamus331111113
LAug 17 · 22:40M. Adamus204970P. Adamus331111113
LJun 21 · 06:45M. Adamus366118111P. Adamus4211711133
WJun 14 · 05:35M. Adamus4381311113P. Adamus391111891
LJun 11 · 08:00M. Adamus551314101172P. Adamus571116127113
WMay 28 · 06:45M. Adamus52141111163P. Adamus4812139141
LMay 12 · 03:35M. Adamus50911111182P. Adamus47116136113
M. Adamus10
WOct 7 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.159590M. Adamus1.601111113WOct 7 · 04:00M. Adamus1.68913116113A. Burkacki2.05111191172WOct 7 · 02:20M. Adamus1.581311113J. Nowak2.2011590WOct 7 · 00:45M. Tkocz1.405660M. Adamus2.651111113WOct 7 · 00:00A. Burkacki2.00611114112M. Adamus1.71117911133WOct 6 · 23:10M. Adamus2.251610912113P. Adamus1.541412111082WOct 6 · 22:00M. Adamus1.66101111113G. Jurowicz1.97126581WOct 5 · 02:00G. Sawicki2.009121091M. Adamus1.73111012113LOct 5 · 01:10M. Guzik1.46111266113M. Adamus2.50410111172WOct 5 · 00:25M. Adamus1.80311169113P. Ostachowski1.86119141152
P. Adamus10
WOct 7 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.94126371P. Adamus1.68101111113WOct 7 · 02:45A. Burkacki2.506117141P. Adamus1.4411511163LOct 7 · 01:35P. Adamus1.3511781582J. Nowak2.706111113113LOct 7 · 00:25G. Jurowicz2.40891211123P. Adamus1.501111107102LOct 6 · 23:10M. Adamus2.251610912113P. Adamus1.541412111082LOct 6 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.461112133P. Adamus2.50610110LOct 2 · 13:55O. Jadach1.8071111113P. Adamus1.91119971LOct 2 · 13:05M. Cesarz3.4011117113P. Adamus1.30841141LOct 2 · 12:15P. Adamus1.53911111282W. Urban2.38118714113LOct 2 · 10:35P. Adamus1.5011123692K. Schaniel2.509101111113
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