TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Pawel Adamus 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11612101311––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:31 and never touched: 69.4% is still 69.4%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
69.4%
69.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
63 points played in total.
Set by set
11612101311––––
H2H Marek Tkocz 12–1 Pawel Adamus Pawel Adamus has won 1 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:3169.4%Our read68.5%to break even at 1.46
clears by 0.9pp68.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.46 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-1 in 13
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 11 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1470 vs Adamus 1331
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 100% vs Adamus 0%
Tkocz
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 80% vs Adamus 10%
Tkocz
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz +5 · Adamus -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Tkocz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.46 / Adamus 2.50
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Tkocz)+0.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13247223
Tkocz1.46
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 284 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it95% 160 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it86% 238 of 278
Adamus2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 86 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkocz9wins
AwayAdamus1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkocz85.7%6 of 7
AwayAdamus0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz7Adamus3n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S2Tkocz8Adamus2n = 10Tkocz took 8 of 10
S3Tkocz8Adamus2n = 10Tkocz took 8 of 10
S4Tkocz4Adamus2n = 6Tkocz took 4 of 6
S5Tkocz2Adamus1n = 3Tkocz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkoczAdamusT − ABasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.729.0+9.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime777 / 1172 vs 401 / 73266.3%54.8%777 / 1172 vs 401 / 732Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.46/Adamus 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.4%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 21:10M. Tkocz3812411113P. Adamus331011571
LSep 25 · 01:10M. Tkocz4815681272P. Adamus5613111110113
WSep 22 · 22:25M. Tkocz3951211113P. Adamus261110231
WApr 22 · 04:00M. Tkocz331111113P. Adamus178450
WJan 25 · 03:45M. Tkocz331111113P. Adamus186660
WJan 25 · 00:05M. Tkocz4111118113P. Adamus32991131
WJul 24 · 04:25M. Tkocz44711114113P. Adamus3711351172
WJul 18 · 02:45M. Tkocz45711115113P. Adamus4111911192
WJul 15 · 07:35M. Tkocz331111113P. Adamus92160
WJul 6 · 23:35M. Tkocz331111113P. Adamus215970
M. Tkocz10
WOct 6 · 22:25A. Burkacki3.17711581M. Tkocz1.3111911113WOct 6 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.141211113R. Adach4.8010720WOct 6 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.8867120M. Tkocz1.821111143WOct 6 · 18:00W. Pytlas2.85251171M. Tkocz1.3611116113WOct 6 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.90811611113P. Kaczynski1.8011411782WOct 6 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.4711117113G. Jurowicz2.50861171LOct 2 · 02:20M. Tkocz2.1555100M. Lebek1.601111123LOct 2 · 00:45G. Jurowicz1.58111167113M. Tkocz2.2669111142WOct 2 · 00:00M. Guzik1.78651171M. Tkocz1.9311117113WOct 1 · 23:10M. Tkocz1.451111113O. Sokolowski2.508680
P. Adamus10
LOct 2 · 13:55O. Jadach1.8071111113P. Adamus1.91119971LOct 2 · 13:05M. Cesarz3.4011117113P. Adamus1.30841141LOct 2 · 12:15P. Adamus1.53911111282W. Urban2.38118714113LOct 2 · 10:35P. Adamus1.5011123692K. Schaniel2.509101111113LOct 2 · 09:50R. Skotniczny1.7311411113P. Adamus2.00811761WOct 2 · 08:35P. Adamus1.501115912113W. Urban2.50617111082LOct 2 · 06:55P. Adamus1.2886100M. Cesarz3.501111123LOct 2 · 05:40P. Adamus2.00931181R. Skotniczny1.7311119113LOct 2 · 04:10P. Adamus1.83911771O. Jadach1.8311611113LOct 2 · 03:00P. Adamus1.531111861K. Schaniel2.3813811113
Upcoming Matches
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P. Adamus
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