TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Burkacki vs Pawel Adamus 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131191311––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:17 and never touched: 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
1131191311––––
H2H Adrian Burkacki 5–9 Pawel Adamus Adrian Burkacki has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1763.0%Our read65.8%to break even at 1.52
short by 2.8pp65.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.52 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burkacki 1272 vs Adamus 1283
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burkacki 20% vs Adamus 40%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burkacki 30% vs Adamus 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Burkacki +1 · Adamus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurkacki 2.37 / Adamus 1.52
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Adamus)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13257602
Burkacki2.37
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 50 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Adamus1.52
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 221 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it97% 106 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it78% 166 of 212
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBurkacki4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurkackin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayAdamus75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burkacki2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S2Burkacki7Adamus3n = 10Burkacki took 7 of 10
S3Burkacki5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S4Burkacki3Adamus4n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S5Burkacki2Adamus2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBurkackiAdamusB − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.140.4+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurkackiAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 381 vs 403 / 74036%54.5%137 / 381 vs 403 / 740Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.940.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusBurkacki 2.37/Adamus 1.52
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Burkacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 06:25A. Burkacki351111133P. Adamus2339110
LOct 7 · 02:45A. Burkacki386117141P. Adamus4311511163
LSep 10 · 05:30A. Burkacki379111071P. Adamus4011612113
LSep 9 · 23:10A. Burkacki29810110P. Adamus361112133
WAug 20 · 04:25A. Burkacki536111211133P. Adamus48116146112
WJul 9 · 08:45A. Burkacki5410111111113P. Adamus4712413992
LJun 11 · 05:35A. Burkacki4596121172P. Adamus521111109113
LMay 21 · 08:20A. Burkacki4771111992P. Adamus44116511113
LMay 21 · 02:20A. Burkacki378111171P. Adamus4311138113
WMay 7 · 03:10A. Burkacki361114113P. Adamus2871290
A. Burkacki10
WOct 7 · 04:50A. Burkacki1.9991112113J. Nowak1.741181081LOct 7 · 04:00M. Adamus1.68913116113A. Burkacki2.05111191172LOct 7 · 02:45A. Burkacki2.506117141P. Adamus1.4411511163LOct 7 · 01:10A. Burkacki1.9011761192G. Jurowicz1.75711119113LOct 7 · 00:00A. Burkacki2.00611114112M. Adamus1.71117911133LOct 6 · 22:25A. Burkacki3.17711581M. Tkocz1.3111911113WOct 6 · 21:10A. Burkacki1.781311113J. Nowak1.9311750LOct 1 · 08:45O. Sokolowski1.85111011113A. Burkacki1.80812891LOct 1 · 07:35A. Burkacki2.55951151M. Lebek1.4511118113WOct 1 · 06:25P. Kurek1.605880A. Burkacki2.151111113
P. Adamus10
LOct 7 · 05:10M. Adamus1.961111113P. Adamus1.767870WOct 7 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.94126371P. Adamus1.68101111113WOct 7 · 02:45A. Burkacki2.506117141P. Adamus1.4411511163LOct 7 · 01:35P. Adamus1.3511781582J. Nowak2.706111113113LOct 7 · 00:25G. Jurowicz2.40891211123P. Adamus1.501111107102LOct 6 · 23:10M. Adamus2.251610912113P. Adamus1.541412111082LOct 6 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.461112133P. Adamus2.50610110LOct 2 · 13:55O. Jadach1.8071111113P. Adamus1.91119971LOct 2 · 13:05M. Cesarz3.4011117113P. Adamus1.30841141LOct 2 · 12:15P. Adamus1.53911111282W. Urban2.38118714113
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