TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Kunchurov vs Oleh Efimov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121191171311––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched: 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kunchurov to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Kunchurov above · Oleh Efimov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 84 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Dmytro Kunchurov at 76.6%
84 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Kunchurov 8–1 Oleh Efimov Oleh Efimov has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0976.6%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 3.4pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kunchurov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Kunchurov
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kunchurov 994 vs Efimov 834
Kunchurov
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kunchurov 80% vs Efimov 40%
Kunchurov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kunchurov 60% vs Efimov 30%
Kunchurov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kunchurov +4 · Efimov -1
Kunchurov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Kunchurov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Efimov form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKunchurov 1.25 / Efimov 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Kunchurov)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256199
Kunchurov1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 04)
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 36 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it72% 28 of 39
Efimov3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog21% won 6 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back18% 3 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKunchurov8wins
AwayEfimov1wins
1 of 9 to a deciderKunchurov leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKunchurov100%5 of 5
AwayEfimov25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kunchurov5Efimov4n = 9Kunchurov took 5 of 9
S2Kunchurov9Efimov0n = 9Kunchurov took 9 of 9
S3Kunchurov6Efimov2n = 8Kunchurov took 6 of 8
S4Kunchurov3Efimov2n = 5Kunchurov took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKunchurovEfimovK − EBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.630.1+8.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKunchurovEfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 231 vs 13 / 5740.3%22.8%93 / 231 vs 13 / 57Avg sets wonper match1.81.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.932.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KunchurovKunchurov 1.25/Efimov 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Kunchurov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kunchurov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 4 · 12:05D. Kunchurov3961111113O. Efimov26111951
WOct 2 · 17:30D. Kunchurov331111113O. Efimov216870
WAug 28 · 12:00D. Kunchurov331111113O. Efimov237970
WJun 2 · 06:30D. Kunchurov43101111113O. Efimov28126641
WApr 23 · 14:40D. Kunchurov331111113O. Efimov198560
WApr 16 · 10:05D. Kunchurov50111288113O. Efimov45610111172
WApr 3 · 10:35D. Kunchurov4391211113O. Efimov341110581
LMar 6 · 07:00D. Kunchurov355111271O. Efimov4511914113
D. Kunchurov10
LOct 7 · 14:30D. Kunchurov4.33981171O. Stopin1.2011117113WOct 4 · 12:05D. Kunchurov1.2561111113O. Efimov3.75111951WOct 4 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.44311141152D. Kunchurov2.63115167113WOct 4 · 08:03O. Riabuha1.838880D. Kunchurov1.831111113WOct 4 · 07:05D. Kunchurov2.1011411113K. Vernudin1.67511571LOct 4 · 06:05K. Tsoi2.25791211113D. Kunchurov1.57111110852WOct 2 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.30107110D. Kunchurov3.401211133WOct 2 · 17:30D. Kunchurov1.221111113O. Efimov4.006870LOct 2 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko2.101371111113D. Kunchurov1.6515115682LOct 2 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.501111113D. Kunchurov2.509870
O. Efimov10
LOct 7 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.251111113O. Efimov3.754960LOct 4 · 12:05D. Kunchurov1.2561111113O. Efimov3.75111951WOct 4 · 10:35O. Efimov3.751111113K. Vernudin1.254780LOct 4 · 08:35K. Tsoi1.737101111113O. Efimov2.0011121472LOct 4 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko1.22711126113O. Efimov4.00118101192WOct 2 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko2.1012101251O. Efimov1.67141210113LOct 2 · 17:30D. Kunchurov1.221111113O. Efimov4.006870LOct 2 · 16:00K. Vernudin1.2811118113O. Efimov3.50681171WOct 2 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.10113811102O. Efimov6.50711118123LOct 2 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.301112113O. Efimov3.4071090
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