TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Boguslaw Madej vs Kamil Smolka 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
91112101171412––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:10 and never touched: 65.9% is still 65.9%
Graded at full timeKamil Smolka to win
65.9%
65.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
91112101171412––
H2H Boguslaw Madej 4–3 Kamil Smolka Kamil Smolka has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Madej beat Smolka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1065.9%Our read70.9%to break even at 1.41
short by 5.0pp70.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.41 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (66%)
Smolka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madej 1316 vs Smolka 1379
Smolka
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madej 60% vs Smolka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madej 70% vs Smolka 50%
Madej
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Madej -1 · Smolka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Smolka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smolka form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadej 2.70 / Smolka 1.41
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Smolka)-5.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13254126
Madej2.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 52 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Smolka1.41
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it64% 36 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMadej4wins
AwaySmolka3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMadej leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadejn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySmolka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madej2Smolka5n = 7Smolka took 5 of 7
S2Madej3Smolka4n = 7Smolka took 4 of 7
S3Madej3Smolka4n = 7Smolka took 4 of 7
S4Madej4Smolka1n = 5Madej took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMadejSmolkaM − SBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match34.436.9−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadejSmolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 390 vs 229 / 44438%51.6%148 / 390 vs 229 / 444Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmolkaMadej 2.70/Smolka 1.41
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.9%
Smolka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Madej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 6 · 08:20B. Madej44111111113K. Smolka31137831
WJun 25 · 14:20B. Madej47613611113K. Smolka46111111672
LJun 25 · 06:20B. Madej197480K. Smolka331111113
LDec 23 · 16:05B. Madej104240K. Smolka331111113
WDec 23 · 07:20B. Madej4212118113K. Smolka361081171
LDec 2 · 13:45B. Madej367141141K. Smolka4711169113
WDec 2 · 11:20B. Madej43111011113K. Smolka32612771
B. Madej10
LOct 6 · 10:40B. Madej3.20119341K. Hetnar1.3081111113WOct 6 · 09:05S. Juzek1.7389140B. Madej1.981111163WOct 6 · 08:20K. Smolka1.42137831B. Madej2.60111111113WOct 6 · 07:30B. Madej2.376121311113M. Jozefiak1.52111015952LOct 6 · 06:20B. Madej1.8551271182M. Rus1.861110115113LSep 30 · 16:40B. Madej2.301166171M. Sikon1.5261111193WSep 30 · 15:05K. Schaniel1.5871111992B. Madej2.25118911113WSep 30 · 14:20M. Rus2.2061180B. Madej1.571113113WSep 30 · 13:30B. Madej2.1591111113W. Buczynski1.62119781WSep 30 · 12:20B. Madej2.451111123R. Gajda1.4788100
K. Smolka10
WOct 6 · 09:30K. Smolka1.3011911113M. Rus3.20611951LOct 6 · 08:20K. Smolka1.42137831B. Madej2.60111111113WOct 6 · 06:45K. Smolka1.531111113S. Juzek2.358990LOct 6 · 05:30K. Smolka2.10813771K. Hetnar1.65111111113WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662WAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113
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