TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Rutkowski vs Dawid Kosmal 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214911511––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
1214911511––––
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 5–5 Dawid Kosmal Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1671 vs Kosmal 1689
Kosmal
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kosmal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 40% vs Kosmal 70%
Kosmal
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +3 · Kosmal -1
Rutkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.80 / Kosmal 1.86
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rutkowski)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253827
Rutkowski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 351 of 497
Up 2–0, closes it98% 172 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it89% 276 of 309
Kosmal1.86
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 70 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski5wins
AwayKosmal5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski75%3 of 4
AwayKosmal66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski4Kosmal6n = 10Kosmal took 6 of 10
S2Rutkowski5Kosmal5n = 10split evenly
S3Rutkowski8Kosmal2n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S4Rutkowski6Kosmal3n = 9Rutkowski took 6 of 9
S5Rutkowski0Kosmal3n = 3Kosmal took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKosmalR − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.240.9+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKosmalBasisWin rate · lifetime833 / 1488 vs 360 / 66756%54%833 / 1488 vs 360 / 667Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.80/Kosmal 1.86
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kosmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 14:35M. Rutkowski40816791D. Kosmal47111411113
WSep 16 · 14:15M. Rutkowski46101311123D. Kosmal4112118101
LAug 2 · 22:50M. Rutkowski31581171D. Kosmal4011117113
WAug 2 · 16:30M. Rutkowski4114511113D. Kosmal371211591
LJun 9 · 19:25M. Rutkowski5811121211122D. Kosmal609141013143
LJun 8 · 19:25M. Rutkowski4151151192D. Kosmal46118115113
LApr 21 · 17:50M. Rutkowski4687111192D. Kosmal50111189113
WMar 11 · 20:00M. Rutkowski4511815113D. Kosmal353111381
WFeb 6 · 17:40M. Rutkowski4071111113D. Kosmal31119831
WFeb 4 · 17:40M. Rutkowski341211113D. Kosmal2210660
M. Rutkowski10
WOct 6 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.85111358113M. Malachowski1.85711111192WOct 5 · 14:15M. Rutkowski1.9012114113D. Kostal1.801081191WOct 5 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz1.91113116112M. Rutkowski1.80711811133LOct 5 · 11:45M. Malachowski1.801113113M. Rutkowski1.8591170LOct 5 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.8099100M. Olbrycht1.911111123LOct 5 · 09:45M. Rutkowski4.20411491M. Sklensky1.2011911113LOct 2 · 14:35D. Kosmal2.00111411113M. Rutkowski1.72816791WOct 2 · 13:25M. Rutkowski1.8511611113K. Wisniewski1.85711681LOct 2 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.051111133M. Rutkowski1.6588110LOct 2 · 10:55K. Kapik1.951112113M. Rutkowski1.7771010
D. Kosmal10
LOct 6 · 09:20M. Olbrycht1.801011811113D. Kosmal1.8512711722WOct 2 · 21:00D. Kosmal1.331111123M. Makajew3.2578100WOct 2 · 19:40D. Kosmal1.5711611113M. Kukawka2.25711751WOct 2 · 18:30D. Kosmal1.5311163113S. Brud2.384141161LOct 2 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.7311116113D. Kosmal2.00971181WOct 2 · 16:30D. Kosmal1.4091111143G. Kesik2.751192121WOct 2 · 14:35D. Kosmal2.00111411113M. Rutkowski1.72816791WOct 2 · 13:00D. Kosmal2.1511117113G. Poliniewicz1.63881151WOct 2 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.001112113K. Kapik1.7071040LOct 2 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.9511891182P. Jendrzejewski1.70611118113
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