TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Dvorak vs Jiri Volek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116111411811911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:15 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Volek to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Jiri Volek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 83 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jiri Volek at 64.1%
83 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 1–4 Jiri Volek Milan Dvorak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:1564.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Volek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Volek
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1513 vs Volek 1522
Volek
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 40% vs Volek 60%
Volek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 60% vs Volek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -2 · Volek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Volek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.50 / Volek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Volek)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13253375
Dvorak2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 38 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Volek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDvorak1wins
AwayVolek4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderVolek leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak33.3%1 of 3
AwayVolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak3Volek2n = 5Dvorak took 3 of 5
S2Dvorak1Volek4n = 5Volek took 4 of 5
S3Dvorak2Volek3n = 5Volek took 3 of 5
S4Dvorak3Volek1n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
S5Dvorak0Volek3n = 3Volek took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away360%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricDvorakVolekD − VBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.041.2−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakVolekBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 341 vs 39 / 8448.1%46.4%164 / 341 vs 39 / 84Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VolekDvorak 2.50/Volek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Volek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Volek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 18 · 18:35M. Dvorak46711117102J. Volek42116211123
LAug 18 · 16:25M. Dvorak2612770J. Volek361411113
LMar 20 · 17:25M. Dvorak4314561172J. Volek481211113113
LJul 14 · 18:25M. Dvorak43118311102J. Volek48611118123
WJul 14 · 16:25M. Dvorak4211911113J. Volek32711771
M. Dvorak10
LOct 6 · 14:55J. Cerny1.801111114113M. Dvorak1.9191391172LOct 2 · 18:35P. Moravec1.881111113M. Dvorak1.829760WOct 2 · 17:25P. Moravec1.73812151M. Dvorak2.00111011113WOct 2 · 16:25M. Dvorak1.831111113J. Hendrych1.837570LOct 2 · 14:55Z. Zahradka2.10121411113M. Dvorak1.671412841LSep 29 · 18:30M. Dvorak1.91413111162J. Cerny1.80111546113WSep 29 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.73115117113Z. Zahradka2.0031151172WSep 29 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.571111113D. Tichy2.257730WSep 29 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.91111169113J. Cerny1.8098111142WSep 24 · 17:55M. Dvorak1.851211113Z. Zahradka1.8510730
J. Volek10
WOct 6 · 15:25J. Volek2.251211113P. Moravec1.5710850WSep 30 · 18:00J. Volek1.8311119113M. Sochor1.83581141LSep 30 · 17:25J. Volek1.80591151J. Cerny1.9111116113LSep 30 · 15:55D. Sochor2.251111108153J. Volek1.57671211132WSep 30 · 15:25M. Sochor1.50781191J. Volek2.5011118113WSep 16 · 18:35J. Volek3.4071511133A. Kosacky1.3011136111LSep 16 · 16:55J. Volek2.00128100J. Hrncir1.731411123WSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 14:55J. Volek3.751111113A. Kosacky1.259680LSep 10 · 18:00J. Hrncir1.721111113J. Volek2.007560
Upcoming Matches
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