TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Moravec vs Milan Dvorak 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111210111511––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Moravec above · Milan Dvorak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Petr Moravec at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Petr Moravec 14–17 Milan Dvorak Petr Moravec has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1154.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-17 in 31
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1512 vs Dvorak 1538
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 100% vs Dvorak 60%
Moravec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 60% vs Dvorak 80%
Dvorak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +5 · Dvorak +1
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.727 / Dvorak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232448
Moravec1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 46 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it77% 33 of 43
Dvorak2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 37 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec6wins
AwayDvorak4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec80%4 of 5
AwayDvorak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S2Moravec6Dvorak4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S3Moravec6Dvorak4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Moravec5Dvorak3n = 8Moravec took 5 of 8
S5Moravec2Dvorak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecDvorakM − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.039.4+1.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 228 vs 167 / 34550.9%48.4%116 / 228 vs 167 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.73/Dvorak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 17:25P. Moravec26812151M. Dvorak43111011113
LSep 24 · 16:50P. Moravec4311812752M. Dvorak518111011113
WAug 3 · 15:55P. Moravec3611113113M. Dvorak22251141
WJul 22 · 16:25P. Moravec5610111111133M. Dvorak50121359112
WJul 7 · 16:20P. Moravec351113113M. Dvorak2251160
LMay 22 · 16:20P. Moravec48101315101M. Dvorak52121513123
WMar 24 · 19:30P. Moravec41621111113M. Dvorak4611118882
WMar 24 · 17:55P. Moravec43111110113M. Dvorak33851281
LMar 20 · 18:25P. Moravec49101151582M. Dvorak531261113113
WMar 17 · 17:25P. Moravec331111113M. Dvorak224990
P. Moravec10
WOct 2 · 15:55Z. Zahradka2.6368100P. Moravec1.441111123WOct 2 · 15:25J. Hendrych1.8311871152P. Moravec1.83811118113WSep 25 · 17:59J. Hendrych1.809111081P. Moravec1.9111912113WSep 25 · 16:50P. Moravec1.53311813113D. Sochor2.38115111172WSep 25 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.3813118101P. Moravec1.5315911123LSep 25 · 14:50J. Hendrych1.831311113P. Moravec1.8311780WSep 24 · 17:24J. Hendrych2.208890P. Moravec1.611111113LSep 24 · 16:50P. Moravec1.6711812752M. Dvorak2.108111011113LSep 24 · 15:20Z. Zahradka3.001111113P. Moravec1.369480LSep 24 · 14:50J. Hendrych1.731191511113P. Moravec2.0081117662
M. Dvorak10
WOct 2 · 16:25M. Dvorak1.831111113J. Hendrych1.837570LOct 2 · 14:55Z. Zahradka2.10121411113M. Dvorak1.671412841LSep 29 · 18:30M. Dvorak1.91413111162J. Cerny1.80111546113WSep 29 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.73115117113Z. Zahradka2.0031151172WSep 29 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.571111113D. Tichy2.257730WSep 29 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.91111169113J. Cerny1.8098111142WSep 24 · 17:55M. Dvorak1.851211113Z. Zahradka1.8510730WSep 24 · 16:50P. Moravec1.6711812752M. Dvorak2.108111011113WSep 24 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.911111113J. Hendrych1.802530WSep 24 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.8311591682M. Dvorak1.832111114113
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