TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jirasek Martin vs Stanislav Kafka 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118119811118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:31 and never touched: 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Stanislav Kafka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Jirasek Martin at 55.6%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 1–1 Stanislav Kafka Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kafka beat Martin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:3155.6%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 3.2pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kafka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Martin 1509 vs Kafka 1580
Kafka
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 80% vs Kafka 60%
Martin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 60% vs Kafka 40%
Martin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin +2 · Kafka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Martin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.909 / Kafka 1.80
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Martin)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13251427
Martin1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back21% 5 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Kafka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 7 of 13
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMartin1wins
AwayKafka1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMartinKafkaM − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match43.044.5−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinKafkaBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 140 vs 68 / 11253.6%60.7%75 / 140 vs 68 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.91/Kafka 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.6%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 5 · 18:05J. Martin3911911352S. Kafka48711811113
WSep 11 · 19:05J. Martin47861111113S. Kafka4111117482
J. Martin10
WOct 5 · 20:35D. Hons1.809111191J. Martin1.9111613113WOct 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.61111111113M. Flesar2.20135671LOct 5 · 18:05S. Kafka1.80711811113J. Martin1.9111911352WOct 4 · 21:10J. Martin1.3311912113J. Kabelka3.259111071WOct 4 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.103670J. Martin1.671111113LOct 4 · 19:35J. Martin1.50941171M. Flesar2.5011115113LOct 4 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.911111133J. Martin1.8068110WOct 4 · 09:39R. Vavricka1.837870J. Martin1.831111113LOct 4 · 08:05R. Vavricka1.9111117113J. Martin1.80981151WOct 4 · 07:35S. Mezlik2.756410J. Martin1.401111113
S. Kafka10
LOct 5 · 20:05S. Kafka1.5761111492M. Flesar2.25119711113WOct 5 · 19:05S. Kafka1.831111113D. Hons1.836980WOct 5 · 18:05S. Kafka1.80711811113J. Martin1.9111911352LSep 29 · 17:05T. Beran1.531211511113S. Kafka2.3814411832WSep 29 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.7378110S. Kafka2.001111133LSep 29 · 15:35S. Kafka2.50711781T. Trnka1.5011911113LSep 29 · 14:05T. Beran1.671113113S. Kafka2.1041160WSep 27 · 21:03M. Flesar1.7310780S. Kafka2.001211113LSep 27 · 20:05S. Kafka1.918810P. Zivny1.801111113LSep 27 · 19:05S. Kafka1.806670D. Hons1.911111113
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