TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Richard Vavricka vs Jirasek Martin 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118711115––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:02 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Jirasek Martin at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 0–4 Jirasek Martin Richard Vavricka has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0254.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Martin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Martin
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1475 vs Martin 1492
Martin
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 60% vs Martin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 50% vs Martin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka +3 · Martin +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Martin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 1.909 / Martin 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Martin)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240619
Vavricka1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 26 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Martin1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 34 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it77% 27 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVavricka0wins
AwayMartin4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderMartin leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavrickan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMartin100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka1Martin3n = 4Martin took 3 of 4
S2Vavricka1Martin3n = 4Martin took 3 of 4
S3Vavricka1Martin3n = 4Martin took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricVavrickaMartinV − MBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match33.840.8−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 246 vs 70 / 13150.8%53.4%125 / 246 vs 70 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartinVavricka 1.91/Martin 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 25 · 20:05R. Vavricka4191111552J. Martin47115911113
LSep 24 · 20:05R. Vavricka4612981162J. Martin491011116113
LSep 5 · 21:04R. Vavricka2789100J. Martin341111123
LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka217680J. Martin331111113
R. Vavricka10
LOct 4 · 09:39R. Vavricka1.837870J. Martin1.831111113WOct 4 · 07:05R. Vavricka1.7321111113M. Chmelicek2.00118951WOct 4 · 06:05R. Vavricka1.281111113S. Mezlik3.504880WSep 27 · 13:16R. Vavricka2.251113113T. Motacek1.5781190LSep 27 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.57111511992P. Pesout2.25317911113LSep 27 · 11:05M. Chmelicek2.001111113R. Vavricka1.737790WSep 27 · 10:35T. Motacek1.67101191392R. Vavricka2.101291111113LSep 27 · 09:10M. Flesar2.20111111113R. Vavricka1.61691361WSep 27 · 08:35K. Lahodny1.67119661R. Vavricka2.1071111113LSep 27 · 07:35R. Vavricka1.441011981M. Flesar2.6312811113
J. Martin10
WOct 4 · 09:39R. Vavricka1.837870J. Martin1.831111113WOct 4 · 07:35S. Mezlik2.756410J. Martin1.401111113WOct 4 · 06:35J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.107490WOct 1 · 17:24O. Pros1.831011581J. Martin1.8312711113LOct 1 · 16:05J. Martin1.504740O. Pros2.501111113LOct 1 · 15:05J. Martin1.6711491162T. Krcil2.10811112113LOct 1 · 14:05J. Martin1.914890L. Vana1.801111113LSep 30 · 21:34J. Martin1.53111051152L. Vosyka2.38412117113WSep 30 · 20:05J. Martin1.5711119133L. Vosyka2.258811111WSep 30 · 19:05J. Martin1.28111410113M. Cyrus3.506121241
Upcoming Matches
R. Vavricka
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J. Martin
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