TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Baday vs Andrii Lushchyk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116211118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:45 and never touched: 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Andrii Lushchyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Maksym Baday at 84.6%
69 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 142–14 Andrii Lushchyk Andrii Lushchyk has won 14 of their 156 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4584.6%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
clears by 1.3pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Baday
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
142-14 in 156
Baday
Correct
gap of 128 in 156, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1872 vs Lushchyk 1733
Baday
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 60% vs Lushchyk 40%
Baday
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 70% vs Lushchyk 50%
Baday
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday +2 · Lushchyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% · Strong (leans Baday) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lushchyk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 1.20 / Lushchyk 4.333
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Baday)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13251355
Baday1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 221 of 297
Up 2–0, closes it97% 113 of 117
Up 1–0, closes it87% 163 of 187
Lushchyk4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog26% won 45 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday7wins
AwayLushchyk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday100%7 of 7
AwayLushchyk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday7Lushchyk3n = 10Baday took 7 of 10
S2Baday8Lushchyk2n = 10Baday took 8 of 10
S3Baday8Lushchyk2n = 10Baday took 8 of 10
S4Baday3Lushchyk2n = 5Baday took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayLushchykB − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.530.7+7.8per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayLushchykBasisWin rate · lifetime540 / 726 vs 374 / 80274.4%46.6%540 / 726 vs 374 / 802Avg sets wonper match2.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BadayBaday 1.20/Lushchyk 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baday won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 15:30M. Baday381611113A. Lushchyk2614480
WSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday4111118113A. Lushchyk24571111
WSep 24 · 14:00M. Baday4111118113A. Lushchyk26541161
LSep 18 · 17:30M. Baday24351151A. Lushchyk4011117113
WSep 18 · 12:30M. Baday341111123A. Lushchyk1927100
WSep 8 · 15:30M. Baday331111113A. Lushchyk184680
WSep 1 · 15:30M. Baday351311113A. Lushchyk2311570
LAug 27 · 14:00M. Baday4779121182A. Lushchyk501111107113
LAug 18 · 14:00M. Baday5912111112132A. Lushchyk58146914153
WAug 14 · 16:30M. Baday331111113A. Lushchyk239680
M. Baday10
WOct 6 · 13:00M. Baday1.3611211113A. Kasyanov3.00711461WOct 2 · 17:34R. Ivanov1.738611101M. Baday2.0011119123LOct 2 · 16:30M. Baday1.918111081R. Ivanov1.8011412113WOct 2 · 15:30M. Baday1.201611113A. Lushchyk4.3314480LOct 2 · 14:00M. Baday1.3631161142S. Chuhai3.00117117113WOct 2 · 13:00M. Baday1.4011911113A. Kasyanov2.75811741WSep 29 · 17:29A. Kasyanov2.7531060M. Baday1.401112113WSep 29 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011811113A. Kasyanov2.75211991WSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday1.2011118113A. Lushchyk4.33571111LSep 29 · 14:00M. Baday1.73111191072I. Fedoryshyn2.00671112113
A. Lushchyk10
LOct 6 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.331111113A. Lushchyk3.259870LOct 2 · 15:30M. Baday1.201611113A. Lushchyk4.3314480WOct 2 · 14:30A. Lushchyk2.38611311113A. Kasyanov1.5311811592LOct 2 · 13:30R. Ivanov1.301111113A. Lushchyk3.403580WOct 2 · 12:30A. Lushchyk1.53111111113S. Chuhai2.38135961WOct 1 · 17:30A. Lushchyk2.63151111133I. Fedoryshyn1.441765111LOct 1 · 16:30A. Lushchyk1.67971191S. Chuhai2.1011116113WOct 1 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.2511157782A. Lushchyk3.757131111113LOct 1 · 14:30A. Lushchyk3.757117141R. Ivanov1.2511711163LSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday1.2011118113A. Lushchyk4.33571111
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