TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Lushchyk vs Serhii Chuhai 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113115119116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched: 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lushchyk to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Lushchyk above · Serhii Chuhai below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 77 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Andrii Lushchyk at 58.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Lushchyk 110–60 Serhii Chuhai Serhii Chuhai has won 60 of their 170 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2158.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 6.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lushchyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
110-60 in 170
Lushchyk
Correct
gap of 50 in 170, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lushchyk 1734 vs Chuhai 1801
Chuhai
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lushchyk 60% vs Chuhai 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lushchyk 40% vs Chuhai 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lushchyk +1 · Chuhai +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Lushchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chuhai form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLushchyk 1.533 / Chuhai 2.375
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Lushchyk)-6.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228903
Lushchyk1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite66% won 111 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it97% 63 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it82% 84 of 102
Chuhai2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 80 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLushchyk6wins
AwayChuhai4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLushchyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLushchyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayChuhai42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lushchyk3Chuhai7n = 10Chuhai took 7 of 10
S2Lushchyk8Chuhai2n = 10Lushchyk took 8 of 10
S3Lushchyk7Chuhai3n = 10Lushchyk took 7 of 10
S4Lushchyk2Chuhai7n = 9Chuhai took 7 of 9
S5Lushchyk3Chuhai1n = 4Lushchyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLushchykChuhaiL − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.539.2+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLushchykChuhaiBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 806 vs 481 / 94846.4%50.7%374 / 806 vs 481 / 948Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LushchykLushchyk 1.53/Chuhai 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.8%
Lushchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lushchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 16:30A. Lushchyk36971191S. Chuhai3911116113
WOct 1 · 13:00A. Lushchyk521110119113S. Chuhai3831261162
WSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk4391211113S. Chuhai301110451
LSep 24 · 16:00A. Lushchyk4191110111S. Chuhai4511912133
WSep 22 · 17:30A. Lushchyk331111113S. Chuhai239680
WSep 22 · 12:30A. Lushchyk4181111113S. Chuhai35118971
WSep 18 · 16:30A. Lushchyk49811118113S. Chuhai4111681152
LSep 18 · 13:00A. Lushchyk30411691S. Chuhai4111811113
LSep 17 · 15:30A. Lushchyk48111110792S. Chuhai52991211113
WSep 17 · 14:30A. Lushchyk52911119123S. Chuhai48117911102
A. Lushchyk10
LOct 2 · 13:30R. Ivanov1.301111113A. Lushchyk3.403580WOct 1 · 17:30A. Lushchyk2.63151111133I. Fedoryshyn1.441765111LOct 1 · 16:30A. Lushchyk1.67971191S. Chuhai2.1011116113WOct 1 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.2511157782A. Lushchyk3.757131111113LOct 1 · 14:30A. Lushchyk3.757117141R. Ivanov1.2511711163WOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113LOct 1 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.441112123A. Lushchyk2.63710100LSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday1.2011118113A. Lushchyk4.33571111WSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.5791211113S. Chuhai2.251110451LSep 29 · 13:30A. Kasyanov1.531111113A. Lushchyk2.383680
S. Chuhai10
WOct 1 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.289560S. Chuhai3.501111113WOct 1 · 16:30A. Lushchyk1.67971191S. Chuhai2.1011116113LOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141WOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381LOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113LOct 1 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.7511761192R. Ivanov1.25911119113LSep 29 · 16:59S. Chuhai2.254811101I. Fedoryshyn1.5711117123LSep 29 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn1.4491112113S. Chuhai2.631151051LSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.5791211113S. Chuhai2.251110451WSep 29 · 13:00M. Baday1.33711441S. Chuhai3.2511611113
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