TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Ivanov vs Serhii Chuhai 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511611––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Ivanov above · Serhii Chuhai below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 79.4%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Ivanov 17–2 Serhii Chuhai Serhii Chuhai has won 2 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Ivanov beat Chuhai 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4679.4%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
clears by 1.6pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Ivanov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-2 in 19
Ivanov
Wrong
gap of 15 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivanov 1906 vs Chuhai 1771
Ivanov
Wrong
both rated, 135 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivanov 60% vs Chuhai 20%
Ivanov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivanov 60% vs Chuhai 30%
Ivanov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivanov -2 · Chuhai -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Ivanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivanov form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvanov 1.285 / Chuhai 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Ivanov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13223697
Ivanov1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 55 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Chuhai3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 77 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvanov8wins
AwayChuhai2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderIvanov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvanov87.5%7 of 8
AwayChuhain = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivanov8Chuhai2n = 10Ivanov took 8 of 10
S2Ivanov6Chuhai4n = 10Ivanov took 6 of 10
S3Ivanov7Chuhai3n = 10Ivanov took 7 of 10
S4Ivanov4Chuhai4n = 8split evenly
S5Ivanov2Chuhai1n = 3Ivanov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvanovChuhaiI − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.934.4+6.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvanovChuhaiBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 119 vs 479 / 94667.2%50.6%80 / 119 vs 479 / 946Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovIvanov 1.28/Chuhai 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chuhai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 12:00R. Ivanov51911119113S. Chuhai4411761192
WSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov4211911113S. Chuhai29711651
WSep 25 · 12:00R. Ivanov331111113S. Chuhai236890
LSep 24 · 17:38R. Ivanov521110111192S. Chuhai46412613113
WSep 24 · 12:00R. Ivanov3911611113S. Chuhai30711571
WSep 11 · 17:29R. Ivanov3811115113S. Chuhai27541171
WSep 11 · 12:00R. Ivanov48111547113S. Chuhai48713111162
WAug 21 · 12:00R. Ivanov331111113S. Chuhai185490
LAug 20 · 16:00R. Ivanov34812681S. Chuhai43111011113
WAug 13 · 17:34R. Ivanov3911511123S. Chuhai367118101
R. Ivanov10
LOct 1 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.9111981162I. Fedoryshyn1.80911114113LOct 1 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.2511157782A. Lushchyk3.757131111113WOct 1 · 14:30A. Lushchyk3.757117141R. Ivanov1.2511711163WOct 1 · 13:30I. Fedoryshyn1.731011581R. Ivanov2.0012611113WOct 1 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.7511761192R. Ivanov1.25911119113WSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651WSep 25 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.801111113M. Baday1.914960LSep 25 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.91811651I. Fedoryshyn1.8011911113WSep 25 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.804820R. Ivanov1.911111113LSep 25 · 13:30M. Baday1.917111011123R. Ivanov1.80119126102
S. Chuhai10
WOct 1 · 16:30A. Lushchyk1.67971191S. Chuhai2.1011116113LOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141WOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381LOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113LOct 1 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.7511761192R. Ivanov1.25911119113LSep 29 · 16:59S. Chuhai2.254811101I. Fedoryshyn1.5711117123LSep 29 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn1.4491112113S. Chuhai2.631151051LSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.5791211113S. Chuhai2.251110451WSep 29 · 13:00M. Baday1.33711441S. Chuhai3.2511611113LSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651
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