TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Lushchyk vs Serhii Chuhai 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911711116911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched: 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lushchyk to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Andrii Lushchyk @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingAndrii Lushchyk above · Serhii Chuhai below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Andrii Lushchyk at 54.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Lushchyk 110–59 Serhii Chuhai Serhii Chuhai has won 59 of their 169 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Lushchyk beat Chuhai 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 15:3054.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lushchyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
110-59 in 169
Lushchyk
Wrong
gap of 51 in 169, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lushchyk 1727 vs Chuhai 1771
Chuhai
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lushchyk 40% vs Chuhai 20%
Lushchyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lushchyk 40% vs Chuhai 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lushchyk +1 · Chuhai -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Lushchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chuhai form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLushchyk 1.666 / Chuhai 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Lushchyk)-5.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223583
Lushchyk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite66% won 110 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it97% 63 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it82% 83 of 101
Chuhai2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 77 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLushchyk6wins
AwayChuhai4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLushchyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLushchyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayChuhai42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lushchyk3Chuhai7n = 10Chuhai took 7 of 10
S2Lushchyk9Chuhai1n = 10Lushchyk took 9 of 10
S3Lushchyk6Chuhai4n = 10Lushchyk took 6 of 10
S4Lushchyk2Chuhai7n = 9Chuhai took 7 of 9
S5Lushchyk3Chuhai1n = 4Lushchyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLushchykChuhaiL − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.739.9+2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLushchykChuhaiBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 804 vs 479 / 94646.4%50.6%373 / 804 vs 479 / 946Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LushchykLushchyk 1.67/Chuhai 2.10
Miss
What we said
54.6%
Lushchyk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Andrii Lushchyk @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Chuhai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 13:00A. Lushchyk521110119113S. Chuhai3831261162
WSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk4391211113S. Chuhai301110451
LSep 24 · 16:00A. Lushchyk4191110111S. Chuhai4511912133
WSep 22 · 17:30A. Lushchyk331111113S. Chuhai239680
WSep 22 · 12:30A. Lushchyk4181111113S. Chuhai35118971
WSep 18 · 16:30A. Lushchyk49811118113S. Chuhai4111681152
LSep 18 · 13:00A. Lushchyk30411691S. Chuhai4111811113
LSep 17 · 15:30A. Lushchyk48111110792S. Chuhai52991211113
WSep 17 · 14:30A. Lushchyk52911119123S. Chuhai48117911102
LSep 8 · 13:30A. Lushchyk387111461S. Chuhai4611816113
A. Lushchyk10
WOct 1 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.2511157782A. Lushchyk3.757131111113LOct 1 · 14:30A. Lushchyk3.757117141R. Ivanov1.2511711163WOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113LOct 1 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.441112123A. Lushchyk2.63710100LSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday1.2011118113A. Lushchyk4.33571111WSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.5791211113S. Chuhai2.251110451LSep 29 · 13:30A. Kasyanov1.531111113A. Lushchyk2.383680LSep 29 · 12:30A. Lushchyk2.639111421I. Fedoryshyn1.4411916113LSep 27 · 10:30A. Lushchyk1.4484111172S. Aristarkhov2.63111136113WSep 27 · 09:00A. Lushchyk1.2811115113O. Ziakun3.50461171
S. Chuhai10
LOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141WOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381LOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113LOct 1 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.7511761192R. Ivanov1.25911119113LSep 29 · 16:59S. Chuhai2.254811101I. Fedoryshyn1.5711117123LSep 29 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn1.4491112113S. Chuhai2.631151051LSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.5791211113S. Chuhai2.251110451WSep 29 · 13:00M. Baday1.33711441S. Chuhai3.2511611113WSep 29 · 12:00A. Kasyanov1.675411101S. Chuhai2.1011118123LSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651
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