TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Baday vs Serhii Chuhai 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311117611117411
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:53 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Serhii Chuhai below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 82 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Maksym Baday at 70.4%
82 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 150–70 Serhii Chuhai Serhii Chuhai has won 70 of their 220 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5370.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Baday
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
150-70 in 220
Baday
Wrong
gap of 80 in 220, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1862 vs Chuhai 1787
Baday
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 80% vs Chuhai 60%
Baday
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 50% vs Chuhai 30%
Baday
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday +4 · Chuhai -1
Baday
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Baday) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chuhai form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 1.363 / Chuhai 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Baday)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228932
Baday1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 222 of 298
Up 2–0, closes it97% 115 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it87% 164 of 188
Chuhai3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 80 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday6wins
AwayChuhai4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday75%3 of 4
AwayChuhai50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday4Chuhai6n = 10Chuhai took 6 of 10
S2Baday6Chuhai4n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S3Baday4Chuhai6n = 10Chuhai took 6 of 10
S4Baday5Chuhai3n = 8Baday took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayChuhaiB − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.736.5+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayChuhaiBasisWin rate · lifetime541 / 726 vs 480 / 94874.5%50.6%541 / 726 vs 480 / 948Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BadayBaday 1.36/Chuhai 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chuhai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 13:00M. Baday26711441S. Chuhai3911611113
LSep 25 · 15:00M. Baday37119891S. Chuhai4181111113
WSep 25 · 14:00M. Baday48811711113S. Chuhai3811411572
LSep 24 · 13:00M. Baday30661171S. Chuhai4211119113
WSep 18 · 15:00M. Baday45511711113S. Chuhai4911911992
WSep 18 · 14:00M. Baday4181111113S. Chuhai32115971
WSep 15 · 15:00M. Baday4311119123S. Chuhai325611101
LSep 15 · 14:00M. Baday2210930S. Chuhai341211113
WSep 8 · 16:30M. Baday4211911113S. Chuhai32611781
WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday331111113S. Chuhai269890
M. Baday10
WOct 2 · 13:00M. Baday1.4011911113A. Kasyanov2.75811741WSep 29 · 17:29A. Kasyanov2.7531060M. Baday1.401112113WSep 29 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011811113A. Kasyanov2.75211991WSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday1.2011118113A. Lushchyk4.33571111LSep 29 · 14:00M. Baday1.73111191072I. Fedoryshyn2.00671112113LSep 29 · 13:00M. Baday1.33711441S. Chuhai3.2511611113LSep 25 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.0011611113M. Baday1.73611881LSep 25 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.801111113M. Baday1.914960LSep 25 · 15:00M. Baday1.33119891S. Chuhai3.2581111113WSep 25 · 14:00S. Chuhai3.2511411572M. Baday1.33811711113
S. Chuhai10
LOct 2 · 15:00R. Ivanov1.331111123S. Chuhai3.2595100LOct 2 · 12:30A. Lushchyk1.53111111113S. Chuhai2.38135961WOct 1 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.289560S. Chuhai3.501111113WOct 1 · 16:30A. Lushchyk1.67971191S. Chuhai2.1011116113LOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141WOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381LOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113WSep 29 · 13:00M. Baday1.33711441S. Chuhai3.2511611113WSep 25 · 15:00M. Baday1.33119891S. Chuhai3.2581111113LSep 25 · 14:00S. Chuhai3.2511411572M. Baday1.33811711113
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