TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Fedoryshyn vs Maksym Baday 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116611118118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:36 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fedoryshyn above · Maksym Baday below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Maksym Baday at 55.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fedoryshyn 117–129 Maksym Baday Ivan Fedoryshyn has won 117 of their 246 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Fedoryshyn beat Baday 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:36What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baday
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
117-129 in 246
Baday
Wrong
gap of 12 in 246, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fedoryshyn 1868 vs Baday 1825
Fedoryshyn
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fedoryshyn 60% vs Baday 40%
Fedoryshyn
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fedoryshyn 60% vs Baday 40%
Fedoryshyn
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fedoryshyn -1 · Baday -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baday) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baday form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFedoryshyn 2.00 / Baday 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baday)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13191240
Fedoryshyn2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 35 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Baday1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite75% won 227 of 304
Up 2–0, closes it98% 120 of 123
Up 1–0, closes it87% 168 of 193
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFedoryshyn7wins
AwayBaday3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFedoryshyn leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFedoryshyn87.5%7 of 8
AwayBadayn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fedoryshyn8Baday2n = 10Fedoryshyn took 8 of 10
S2Fedoryshyn7Baday3n = 10Fedoryshyn took 7 of 10
S3Fedoryshyn5Baday5n = 10split evenly
S4Fedoryshyn3Baday4n = 7Baday took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFedoryshynBadayF − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.833.8+4.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFedoryshynBadayBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 834 vs 537 / 72066%74.6%550 / 834 vs 537 / 720Avg sets wonper match2.32.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadayFedoryshyn 2.00/Baday 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fedoryshyn won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn3911611113M. Baday33611881
WSep 25 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn331111113M. Baday238690
WSep 24 · 17:08I. Fedoryshyn401118113M. Baday2781630
LSep 24 · 15:30I. Fedoryshyn305111131M. Baday4111613113
WSep 15 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn4516117113M. Baday391461181
WSep 15 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn47111114113M. Baday30371641
WSep 8 · 14:00I. Fedoryshyn331111113M. Baday147340
LSep 1 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn336111241M. Baday4411814113
WSep 1 · 14:00I. Fedoryshyn42115123113M. Baday44411101182
LAug 28 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn361110871M. Baday4391211113
I. Fedoryshyn10
LSep 25 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn1.57111050S. Chuhai2.251312113WSep 25 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.91811651I. Fedoryshyn1.8011911113LSep 25 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.804820R. Ivanov1.911111113WSep 25 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.638880I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113WSep 25 · 12:30M. Baday1.678690I. Fedoryshyn2.101111113WSep 24 · 17:08I. Fedoryshyn1.911118113M. Baday1.8081630LSep 24 · 15:30M. Baday1.6711613113I. Fedoryshyn2.105111131LSep 24 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.5364121142S. Chuhai2.381111109113WSep 24 · 13:30R. Ivanov2.009131371I. Fedoryshyn1.73111115113WSep 24 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.4011117113A. Lushchyk2.75771181
M. Baday10
LSep 25 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.801111113M. Baday1.914960LSep 25 · 15:00M. Baday1.33119891S. Chuhai3.2581111113WSep 25 · 14:00S. Chuhai3.2511411572M. Baday1.33811711113WSep 25 · 13:30M. Baday1.917111011123R. Ivanov1.80119126102LSep 25 · 12:30M. Baday1.678690I. Fedoryshyn2.101111113LSep 24 · 17:08I. Fedoryshyn1.911118113M. Baday1.8081630LSep 24 · 16:30M. Baday1.91612611102R. Ivanov1.801110115123WSep 24 · 15:30M. Baday1.6711613113I. Fedoryshyn2.105111131WSep 24 · 14:00M. Baday1.1711118113A. Lushchyk4.50541161LSep 24 · 13:00M. Baday1.44661171S. Chuhai2.6311119113
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