TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Baday vs Ruslan Ivanov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111141012811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Ruslan Ivanov @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Ruslan Ivanov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 6–12 Ruslan Ivanov Maksym Baday has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:4454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ivanov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Ivanov
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1859 vs Ivanov 1893
Ivanov
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 80% vs Ivanov 40%
Baday
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 50% vs Ivanov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday +1 · Ivanov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Ivanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivanov form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 1.909 / Ivanov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ivanov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229422
Baday1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 4 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back11% 1 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Ivanov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 57 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it87% 40 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday4wins
AwayIvanov6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderIvanov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday50%3 of 6
AwayIvanov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday6Ivanov4n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S2Baday4Ivanov6n = 10Ivanov took 6 of 10
S3Baday2Ivanov8n = 10Ivanov took 8 of 10
S4Baday5Ivanov2n = 7Baday took 5 of 7
S5Baday2Ivanov3n = 5Ivanov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayIvanovB − IBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.939.3−0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayIvanovBasisWin rate · lifetime542 / 728 vs 82 / 12374.5%66.7%542 / 728 vs 82 / 123Avg sets wonper match2.52.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovBaday 1.91/Ivanov 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Ruslan Ivanov @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
1–3
Ivanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 16:00M. Baday194960R. Ivanov331111113
WSep 25 · 13:30M. Baday517111011123R. Ivanov48119126102
LSep 24 · 16:30M. Baday45612611102R. Ivanov491110115123
WAug 28 · 15:00M. Baday541191013113R. Ivanov45611121152
WAug 28 · 14:00M. Baday351311113R. Ivanov2311840
LAug 27 · 13:00M. Baday4611961282R. Ivanov452111110113
LAug 21 · 13:00M. Baday32115881R. Ivanov4181111113
WAug 20 · 13:00M. Baday4111811113R. Ivanov28711821
LAug 14 · 13:00M. Baday229490R. Ivanov331111113
LAug 13 · 14:00M. Baday4411126872R. Ivanov485101111113
M. Baday10
WOct 2 · 15:30M. Baday1.201611113A. Lushchyk4.3314480LOct 2 · 14:00M. Baday1.3631161142S. Chuhai3.00117117113WOct 2 · 13:00M. Baday1.4011911113A. Kasyanov2.75811741WSep 29 · 17:29A. Kasyanov2.7531060M. Baday1.401112113WSep 29 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011811113A. Kasyanov2.75211991WSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday1.2011118113A. Lushchyk4.33571111LSep 29 · 14:00M. Baday1.73111191072I. Fedoryshyn2.00671112113LSep 29 · 13:00M. Baday1.33711441S. Chuhai3.2511611113LSep 25 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.0011611113M. Baday1.73611881LSep 25 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.801111113M. Baday1.914960
R. Ivanov10
WOct 2 · 15:00R. Ivanov1.331111123S. Chuhai3.2595100WOct 2 · 13:30R. Ivanov1.301111113A. Lushchyk3.403580LOct 2 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.67611661A. Kasyanov2.1011611113LOct 1 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.289560S. Chuhai3.501111113LOct 1 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.9111981162I. Fedoryshyn1.80911114113LOct 1 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.2511157782A. Lushchyk3.757131111113WOct 1 · 14:30A. Lushchyk3.757117141R. Ivanov1.2511711163WOct 1 · 13:30I. Fedoryshyn1.731011581R. Ivanov2.0012611113WOct 1 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.7511761192R. Ivanov1.25911119113WSep 25 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.801111113M. Baday1.914960
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