TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Lushchyk vs Artem Kasyanov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611118311115119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeArtem Kasyanov to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Lushchyk above · Artem Kasyanov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 86 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Artem Kasyanov at 61.6%
86 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Lushchyk 47–81 Artem Kasyanov Andrii Lushchyk has won 47 of their 128 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1961.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kasyanov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
47-81 in 128
Kasyanov
Wrong
gap of 34 in 128, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lushchyk 1739 vs Kasyanov 1808
Kasyanov
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lushchyk 60% vs Kasyanov 40%
Lushchyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lushchyk 50% vs Kasyanov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lushchyk -1 · Kasyanov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Kasyanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasyanov form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLushchyk 2.375 / Kasyanov 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kasyanov)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229032
Lushchyk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog26% won 44 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back15% 18 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Kasyanov1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 76 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it81% 57 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLushchyk5wins
AwayKasyanov5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLushchyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayKasyanov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lushchyk6Kasyanov4n = 10Lushchyk took 6 of 10
S2Lushchyk3Kasyanov7n = 10Kasyanov took 7 of 10
S3Lushchyk5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S4Lushchyk3Kasyanov2n = 5Lushchyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLushchykKasyanovL − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match30.632.1−1.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLushchykKasyanovBasisWin rate · lifetime375 / 806 vs 380 / 67646.5%56.2%375 / 806 vs 380 / 676Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KasyanovLushchyk 2.38/Kasyanov 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Kasyanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lushchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 13:30A. Lushchyk173680A. Kasyanov331111113
WSep 18 · 14:30A. Lushchyk331111113A. Kasyanov249780
WSep 17 · 17:30A. Lushchyk3811511113A. Kasyanov33811951
WSep 17 · 12:30A. Lushchyk331111113A. Kasyanov206590
WSep 10 · 16:30A. Lushchyk3911611113A. Kasyanov33811861
LSep 8 · 14:30A. Lushchyk36117991A. Kasyanov4291111113
LSep 4 · 16:00A. Lushchyk218760A. Kasyanov331111113
LSep 4 · 13:30A. Lushchyk344911101A. Kasyanov3811114123
WSep 3 · 16:30A. Lushchyk3711112133A. Kasyanov327311111
LSep 3 · 13:00A. Lushchyk183780A. Kasyanov331111113
A. Lushchyk10
LOct 2 · 13:30R. Ivanov1.301111113A. Lushchyk3.403580WOct 2 · 12:30A. Lushchyk1.53111111113S. Chuhai2.38135961WOct 1 · 17:30A. Lushchyk2.63151111133I. Fedoryshyn1.441765111LOct 1 · 16:30A. Lushchyk1.67971191S. Chuhai2.1011116113WOct 1 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.2511157782A. Lushchyk3.757131111113LOct 1 · 14:30A. Lushchyk3.757117141R. Ivanov1.2511711163WOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113LOct 1 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.441112123A. Lushchyk2.63710100LSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday1.2011118113A. Lushchyk4.33571111WSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.5791211113S. Chuhai2.251110451
A. Kasyanov10
LOct 2 · 13:00M. Baday1.4011911113A. Kasyanov2.75811741WOct 2 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.67611661A. Kasyanov2.1011611113LSep 29 · 17:29A. Kasyanov2.7531060M. Baday1.401112113LSep 29 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011811113A. Kasyanov2.75211991WSep 29 · 15:00A. Kasyanov2.001111113I. Fedoryshyn1.739920WSep 29 · 13:30A. Kasyanov1.531111113A. Lushchyk2.383680LSep 29 · 12:00A. Kasyanov1.675411101S. Chuhai2.1011118123LSep 18 · 14:30A. Lushchyk2.631111113A. Kasyanov1.449780LSep 18 · 13:30M. Baday1.401131011113A. Kasyanov2.7551112752WSep 18 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.10129100A. Kasyanov1.671411123
Upcoming Matches
A. Lushchyk
Nothing scheduled
A. Kasyanov
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