TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasyl Matviichuk vs Ivan Sushko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161181210––––
Ivan Sushko
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:43 and never touched: 78.3% is still 78.3%
Graded at full timeIvan Sushko to win
78.3%
78.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Ivan Sushko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 58 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Ivan Sushko at 78.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 1–1 Ivan Sushko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4378.3%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 5.0pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Sushko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1154 vs Sushko 1463
Sushko
Wrong
both rated, 309 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 40% vs Sushko 20%
Matviichuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 30% vs Sushko 50%
Sushko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk +2 · Sushko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Sushko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sushko form (20%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 4.333 / Sushko 1.20
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Sushko)-5.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251074
Matviichuk4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 37 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back7% 6 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 69
Sushko1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 12 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMatviichuk1wins
AwaySushko1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMatviichukSushkoM − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match27.529.0−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukSushkoBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 594 vs 64 / 11848%54.2%285 / 594 vs 64 / 118Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SushkoMatviichuk 4.33/Sushko 1.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.3%
Sushko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Matviichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 6 · 06:00V. Matviichuk341111123I. Sushko2468100
LDec 9 · 06:00V. Matviichuk2121090I. Sushko341112113
V. Matviichuk10
LOct 6 · 07:00V. Matviichuk2.387770S. Honcharenko1.531111113WOct 1 · 10:29S. Honcharenko1.615127101V. Matviichuk2.20111011123WOct 1 · 09:30V. Matviichuk1.401111113Y. Urezchenko2.752870LOct 1 · 08:30V. Matviichuk2.1011114672S. Honcharenko1.67571111113LOct 1 · 07:00V. Matviichuk1.53651151V. Khyzhnyak2.3811116113LOct 1 · 06:00V. Matviichuk2.6316650M. Zavoloka1.441811113LSep 29 · 09:00A. Lysyi2.101111113V. Matviichuk1.678370LSep 29 · 07:30E. Bakin1.281111108113V. Matviichuk3.5089121192LSep 29 · 06:00V. Simchuk1.28111012113V. Matviichuk3.504121051LSep 29 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.6111911113V. Matviichuk2.20211861
I. Sushko10
WOct 6 · 05:00M. Zavoloka2.501381161I. Sushko1.50111113113LOct 5 · 16:30I. Sushko1.831211611112V. Simchuk1.831031113133LOct 5 · 15:30I. Sushko1.50612411102I. Dubinin2.501110115123LOct 5 · 14:00I. Sushko1.5327111122S. Sideltsev2.38111197113LOct 5 · 13:00I. Sushko1.5391191172P. Shulhachyk2.38117117113LJul 9 · 10:00I. Sushko2.5094100O. Torianyk1.501111123WJul 9 · 09:00I. Sushko1.6113117133M. Pohorilyi2.2011811111WJul 9 · 08:30I. Sushko1.4411119133S. Sideltsev2.636111111WJul 9 · 07:30S. Sideltsev2.0010650I. Sushko1.731211113WJul 9 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi2.205511111I. Sushko1.6111114133
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