TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Sabuka vs Julius Krejcik 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111210711811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Julius Krejcik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 · our read held David Sabuka at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 1–2 Julius Krejcik David Sabuka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sabuka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1417 vs Krejcik 1332
Sabuka
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 80% vs Krejcik 40%
Sabuka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 80% vs Krejcik 40%
Sabuka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +2 · Krejcik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sabuka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejcik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 1.80 / Krejcik 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sabuka)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251071
Sabuka1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite52% won 62 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it75% 44 of 59
Krejcik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSabuka1wins
AwayKrejcik2wins
Krejcik leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sabuka1Krejcik2n = 3Krejcik took 2 of 3
S2Sabuka2Krejcik1n = 3Sabuka took 2 of 3
S3Sabuka1Krejcik2n = 3Krejcik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSabukaKrejcikS − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match32.032.00.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaKrejcikBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 527 vs 30 / 5348.2%56.6%254 / 527 vs 30 / 53Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaSabuka 1.80/Krejcik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krejcik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 6 · 07:00D. Sabuka36912781J. Krejcik43111011113
WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka341111123J. Krejcik2037100
LAug 24 · 12:00D. Sabuka268990J. Krejcik331111113
D. Sabuka10
WOct 6 · 07:30P. Moulis1.8316100D. Sabuka1.831111123WOct 6 · 06:00D. Sabuka1.531111133J. Jnr2.3826110WOct 3 · 20:58P. Moulis1.80124111182D. Sabuka1.91141185113LOct 3 · 19:30M. Holub1.83711114113D. Sabuka1.8311981172WOct 3 · 19:00D. Sabuka1.50111145113J. Jnr2.5029111172WOct 3 · 18:00D. Sabuka2.381115143P. Moulis1.53513120WOct 2 · 12:38M. Hasman1.507880D. Sabuka2.501111113LOct 2 · 11:30D. Sabuka2.2581111762M. Hasman1.57116911113WOct 2 · 10:30D. Sabuka3.25911711113M. Melisek1.3311811872WOct 2 · 09:30D. Sabuka1.5711114113J. Jnr2.25271191
J. Krejcik10
LOct 6 · 08:00J. Jnr2.38911712113J. Krejcik1.53117111032LOct 6 · 05:30P. Moulis1.6711119113J. Krejcik2.10431171WSep 29 · 08:44J. Krejcik1.531111113P. Muller2.386990LSep 29 · 08:00J. Vrnak2.1015115113J. Krejcik1.671381191LSep 29 · 07:00P. Muller3.2512119113J. Krejcik1.331081181WSep 29 · 05:30A. Akopyan2.389660J. Krejcik1.531111113LSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113LSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 11:00J. Krejcik2.001111113J. Seeman1.733940WSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132
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